We are nearly two months removed from the start of free agency, and eleven-year veteran Robert Covington is still without an employer.
Currently, our Sacramento Kings have 14 (of 15) main roster spots filled, all three two-ways, and one training camp deal. In theory, that means that we can still add Covington on a veteran minimum contract (or something similar to that) if they so choose. But should they try to sign him?
What Do The Kings Need?
As we've discussed all offseason long, the Kings need functional size. What do I mean by that? They need a big forward who can space the floor, attack closeouts, defend, and offer some secondary rim protection.
Can Robert Covington Help The Kings?
The question now becomes: can Covington do what the Kings need from him?
As any good analyst will tell you, you need to take a holistic approach when evaluating players. That means looking at anecdotal, analytical, and actual (i.e., film analysis) information to form one's opinion.
With that said, I have found over the years that there are some statistics that offer a good proxy for how good a role player can be in the modern NBA. Some metrics I like to look at are player wingspan, 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts per 75, true shooting percentage on drives, drives per 36 minutes, Defensive Estimated-Plus Minus (DEF EPM), steal rate, and block rate.
Statistic | Output (Percentile) |
|---|---|
Wingspan | 7'1.75 (78th) |
3-Point % | 33.9% (34th) |
3-Point Attempts per 75 Possessions | 4.3 (36th) |
True Shooting on Drives | 66% (96th) |
Drives per 36 Minutes | 2.7 (17th) |
Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus | +2.5 (96th) |
Steal Rate | 3.9% (99th) |
Block Rate | 3.6% (86th) |
(Sidebar: All data from the chart above was taken from Dunks & Threes and the Thinking Basketball database.)
According to the numbers above, Covington surely has the defensive splendor to help our Kings. He's got great size (6'9 with a 7'1.75 wingspan), and he's a great defensive playmaker (99th percentile) and secondary rim protector (86th percentile).
The problem – as has been the case his entire career – is his offense. Covington is a below-average spacer, as evidenced by his 3-point efficiency and volume (remember, when it comes to spacing, shooting volume is more important than shooting efficiency).
As for Covington's drive game, his efficiency is really high, but that is probably because of his super low volume (he only had 37 drives in 23-24). In 2021-22, Covington logged 130 drives (per NBA.com), and he was only in the 15th percentile in true shooting on drives that season.
Bottom Line
At this point in his career, Covington is still an elite per-minute forward defender who is a clear net negative on offense. If the Kings were to sign him, their offense would take a hit when he's on the floor because neither of their main centers (Domantas Sabonis and Alex Len) are stretch bigs. So, the Kings would have (at least) two below-average spacers on the floor. However, it would be intriguing to see some lineups with Covington and Trey Lyles occupying the four and five spots.
With this said, I would still sign Covington if I was the Kings. As we discussed in our post about Cedi Osman, the Kings need more defensively-slanted players to give their team and their lineups some more balance.
Covington would certainly provide that for them. And since he'd be a low-risk signing, the Kings should call his agent and see what they can work out.
During his career, Covington has played for the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Houston Rockets. He owns averages of 10.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.9 BPG.