Despite not even making it out of the play-in tournament, the Sacramento Kings are closer to competing for a title than it may appear on the surface. The key is just to have a strong offseason (easier said than done). And here is one thing that really needs to happen during that time to make that the case.
The more time I spend with the modern game, the more I realize the importance of functional size. If you look at the teams that made deep playoff runs this year (the Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers, and Minnesota Timberwolves), all of them tout huge dudes who can fulfill a lot of duties on the basketball floor.
So, what is functional size? Players who are big (duh) that can shoot, put the ball on the floor, and provide some rim protection. That last feature is particularly important to this Kings team, as Domantas Sabonis (the team's starting center) is only in the 15th percentile in block rate among bigs (per Cleaning the Glass).
With Sabonis' limitations, you really want a power forward that fits the character biography we've created above. In theory, the team's current starting power forward, Harrison Barnes, should fit that outline. He's a good shooter (72nd percentile 3-point %, per Dunks & Threes) with size (6'8) that can put the ball on the floor (like this).
The problem is that Barnes doesn't really fit this role in practice, as evidenced by his pedestrian Estimated Plus-Minus (51st percentile). Especially damning is his block rate, which is in the 7th percentile in the entire league.
(Sidebar #1: Remember, EPM, and other one-number metrics like it, are intended to tell us how well a player is performing in their specific role on their specific team. So, in Barnes' case, his EPM is telling us he's just okay at being a starting power forward next to a center who isn't a great rim protector. And to be a contender, the Kings need someone who excels in this role.)
I don't mean to make this an anti-Barnes article. He's a valuable veteran who still has a lot to offer to a basketball team. But in this specific team construct, Barnes may be underqualified to be the functional size guy that they need him to be.
That brings us back to the premise of this post. This offseason, the Kings need to find a way to upgrade the starting power forward position.
Trey Lyles has played well for Sacramento in this role at times, but he's 28 (which likely eliminates the potential of significant improvement) and better suited for a bench role on a serious contender. That means that their best bet is to look for an upgrade on the open market.
Given that Sacramento can only retain their guys (Malik Monk, JaVale McGee, and Alex Len) and use their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level and Bi-Annual Exception (per Spotrac), free agency probably isn't the place for them to add some functional size. And since finding an immediate contributor in the draft is like finding a needle in a haystack, the 2024 NBA Draft isn't a bankable option either.
So, the Kings will probably need to orchestrate a trade in order to take it to the next level. As we saw prior to the NBA Trade Deadline, the Kings seem willing to package Barnes, Kevin Huerter, and draft capital in order to upgrade their roster.
While I haven't spoken with Monte McNair about it directly (although I did share a conversation with him in the bathroom of the site where the 2024 NBA Draft Combine was held), my guess is he has come to a similar conclusion that I have. The Kings need more functional size if they are going to go deeper in the playoffs.
Finding a player that fits this description that the Kings can reasonably acquire won't be easy. But some potential trade options could include Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant, Brandon Ingram, and Aaron Wiggins.
Which one of these players should they prioritize? What would the specifics of the trade look like? Those are questions that are outside the scope of this article (that we will probably touch on later on). But one thing is for sure: the Kings need to upgrade the power forward spot if they plan on taking the next step forward.