Sacramento Kings: What will Willie Cauley-Stein command in free agency?

With Willie Cauley-Stein set to hit restricted free agency this summer, what might his next contract look like? And will he get it from the Sacramento Kings?

Willie Cauley-Stein has had an up and down tenure with the Sacramento Kings since they drafted him in 2015. He’s had his moments that make you feel he’s on the verge of greatness, but far too often he appears checked out during games and has been an abject disaster defensively, even though that was his calling card coming out of Kentucky.

Regardless, Cauley-Stein is a (restricted) free agent and, by his own admission, he’s looking to get paid this summer. Whether or not the Sacramento Kings are the ones who pay him is up for debate. So too, is how large of a contract he might command this summer.

After a hot start to the season, Willie Cauley-Stein has come back down to earth and, once again, struggled with consistency, which hurts his market value. In fact, his play has been so inconsistent it’s not ridiculous to think the Kings may not even tender him the $6.2 million qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent, let alone sign him for eight figures or more.

More from A Royal Pain

• 3 Ways Chris Duarte improves the Kings chances in 2023-24
• 5 Players the Sacramento Kings never should have signed
• Bleacher Report crazily lists Kings’ All-Star as “most overrated NBA player”
• Kings and Heat fans clash on Twitter to debate All-Star players
• Sacramento Kings’ Chris Duarte playing in 2023 FIBA World Cup

But when you listen to Cauley-Stein’s comments at various points this season, it’s clear that’s what he’s aiming for — a massive payday.

"I’m ready to get paid,” Cauley-Stein told NBC Sports California. “This is what we’ve got to do, that’s what type of focus I’m on. I’m ready for it. I’ve seen everybody else — all my peers. All right, I’m ready for that."

Those comments were made during the Kings’ media day back in September, but things haven’t changed much since. Following a series of games where Cauley-Stein was torched on the boards, allowing back-to-back centers to grab 23 rebounds, he seemed to indicate that’s because they (Karl Anthony-Towns and Steven Adams) get paid more than he does.

"“They get paid $100 mill to do that, so if they’re not doing that, you’re looking at them differently,” Cauley-Stein told ABC10 after the Kings lost to the Thunder, 132-113. “Y’all get paid $100 mill to rebound and block shots. Me looking in on that, that’s big time. You know, Steven’s a helluva player, me playing against him, and he’s doing that, he gets paid $100 mill to do that."

Cauley-Stein isn’t wrong here; let’s make that clear. But the issue lies in how Cauley-Stein seems to value himself. When you put his numbers against those of Anthony-Towns, Adams and Devin Booker (who played at Kentucky with Cauley-Stein) it’s clear he’s not worth the type of contract those players received.

This season, Steven Adams is averaging 14.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, nearly a block per game and is 5th among all centers in defensive win shares. Adams signed a  four-year, $100 million contract in 2017.

Karl Anthony-Towns, who signed a gigantic five-year, $190 million contract in September, is posting averages of 24.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.9 blocks per game. Towns isn’t a defensive stalwart by any means, but he’s fourth among all centers in real plus-minus wins with 10.16 and has an RPM of 4.31, sixth among all centers.

Devin Booker isn’t a center, but the former-Kentucky Wildcat inked a five-year, $158 million contract with Phoenix in July after a season where he posted 24.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists.

Cauley-Stein, meanwhile, is 17th among all centers in RPM, 14th in RPM Wins, 21st in defensive win shares and is averaging 12.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.2 steals. His numbers have also dropped steadily since the beginning of the season, bottoming out when he averaged just nine points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.6 assists in the month of February. Those numbers aren’t in line with any of the aforementioned players, but they are in line with another center drafted in 2015 who signed an extension this last summer.

Myles Turner, who is averaging 13.1 points, seven rebounds, 1.6 assists and 2.8 blocks, signed a four-year, $72 million extension in October and likely set Willie Cauley-Stein’s bar in the process.

Turner, who is a better defender than Cauley-Stein, has provided nearly equal value to Cauley-Stein this season, mostly due to his struggles offensively. Regardless, Turner set the bar for centers heading into free agency this summer and there are a lot, which could shorten the amount of suitors Willie Cauley-Stein will have when it’s his turn to get paid.

As it currently stands, there are few teams with a need for a center and even fewer who will be looking to spend big money on a center. One thing working on Cauley-Stein’s side, however, is his age and his value as a passing big.

Cauley-Stein’s 2.5 assists per game rank 12th among all centers, and all centers ahead of him are making at least $9 million per year. In fact, the average yearly salary of the three directly ahead of him (Mason Plumlee, Julius Randle and Jusuf Nurkic) sits at $12.8 million per season. That, is likely where Cauley-Stein’s market will fall.

He will almost assuredly miss out on anything near the four-year, $100 million deal Adams got, and it’s unlike he’ll approach the $18 million per season that Turner got, but a contract that approaches $15 million per season over three or four years seems likely, with the money likely to increase is the years decrease.

That contract is likely too rich for the Sacramento Kings, especially if they plan on swinging big this offseason, but it could be palatable to a team like the Dallas Mavericks or New York Knicks who have front-court needs and ample cap space. Regardless of how much money he commands in free agency though, it appears Willie Cauley-Stein’s Sacramento Kings tenure is coming to an end.