Sacramento Kings: Predicting Marvin Bagley III’s rookie campaign

Looking at the odds for the rookie of the year voting, I have seen Marvin Bagley III voted as a top three candidate and some sites have him outside the top five. With that said, I am going to break down where I think Bagley will end up amongst his peers.

Coming into the season as the second pick from the NBA draft, Marvin Bagley III has the pressure of being one of the best rookies this season. On a team that does not have a go-to big man, Bagley will have the opportunity to be that guy.

Willie Cauley-Stein is not a go-to-guy as he usually gets his buckets by being set up by other teammates and off offensive rebounds. Skal Labissiere will be fighting for minutes too, but most likely off the bench. And Harry Giles will not be taking minutes away from Bagley, so Marvin has the opportunity to get the ball often.

With that said, let us jump into Bagley’s weaknesses, strengths, and his chances of earning any accolades this season. 

Weaknesses

Being the star freshman at Duke, I expected Bagley to come into summer league and dominate, and he did not. The one concern I had with Bagley is that he dominated the college level with his exceptional athleticism and less from his skillset.

In my opinion, it is very rare to see someone enter the NBA and purely dominate the league with just athleticism. Even though that will help Bagley at the next level, he does need to improve his offensive skill set. For one, Bagley has not shown the ability the be a consistent jump shooter. He did knock down almost 40% of his three-pointers with Duke, but he only attempted 58 shots from the area.

At 6’11”, Bagley’s ball handling is average at best as he relies heavily on his left hand when attacking the rim. NBA teams will adjust quickly and force Bagley to attack going right, which he has not shown to do consistently.

Defensively, he has a lot to work on. His former teammate Wendell Carter was the better defender and that was clear in summer league as well. Not only did Wendell shine defensively, but offensively he seemed to be more comfortable with the physicality and the increased speed of the game.

Mike Krzyzewski had to revert to playing a 2-3 zone last season because of how bad Duke was playing man to man. Now I am not saying Bagley was the sole reason for this, but he did not help. Bagley does have great athleticism, but he did struggle with switching on guards and wings. He needs to improve his lateral quickness if he wants to be a decent defender at the next level. Off the ball, Bagley had too many possessions where he was not in the right place to help. I have the confidence in Dave Joerger that he will help Bagley on the defensive side of the ball.

Strengths

The one thing that stuck out to me with Bagley is that he has a really high motor on the offensive end. He continued to attack mismatches and crashed the offensive glass at an elite level as he was ranked seventh in the entire country with four offensive rebounds per game. One thing that is tough to teach is motor and effort, and Bagley seems to have that at least on the offensive side of the ball.

Another thing Bagley has going for him is his athleticism. He is fast for his size and is a quick jumper which allows him to not only dominate the defensive glass but also rebound his own misses near the rim. A couple of things you cannot teach, but Bagley has over his peers.

Rookie Awards

Bagley will have tough competition this season if he wants to win rookie of the year. Not only will it be tough to win the award, but making the All-Rookie First Team will be a dogfight as well. With the likes of Jaren Jackson, Kevin Knox, Wendell Carter, Deandre Ayton, and teammate Harry Giles, there will be many candidates to fill the forward/center positions for the All-Rookie honors.

The good thing going for Bagley is that he will have the opportunity to produce. The Sacramento Kings are young and they do not have a go-to big man to throw the ball to. So if they can play fast and get Bagley in the open court and use him in pick-and-rolls, I think he will put up numbers good enough to make the All-Rookie First Team.

Rookie of the year? As much as I hate to say it, I do not think he wins it. I have Trae Young taking that award as the Atlanta Hawks have unloaded point guard Dennis Schroeder. With that, Young will have a high usage rate and will rack up the stats to take that award. Bagley could easily be the runner-up, but he could also fall behind the likes of Ayton, and even former teammate Carter if the Chicago Bulls make a drastic jump in wins.

Final Thoughts

Marvin Bagley has a lot to prove and also a lot to improve. Going up against Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, Giles, and the veteran presence of Zach Randolph in practice every day, Bagley will learn a ton.

If Bagley struggles and former teammate Carter excels, you will start to hear the “Did Sacramento draft the wrong big man from Duke?” takes. It will be interesting to see if that pressure gets to Bagley or motivates him. I have high hopes for him. He is confident in himself and his game. He will have his struggles just as every rookie will, but I think by season’s end, Bagley will show Sacramento why he was the second pick in the draft.