With the recent news that the Sacramento Kings may be willing to let Rajon Rondo walk in free agency, it seems possible that Vlade Divac & Co. might be on the hunt for a new point guard this offseason.
Luckily for them, the 2016 NBA Draft has a couple good ones.
Sitting at – or at least near – the top of that heap is Providence product, Kris Dunn. Dunn has shaken off shoulder injuries in his first two years in college to now become one of the premier points guards in all of college basketball the past two seasons and was a driving force behind the Friars’ berth in the NCAA Tournament as a ninth seed.
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Dunn’s got an NBA-size body, standing at 6’4″ and 205 pounds. He also has a 6’9″ wingspan, one of the best among all draft-eligible point guards.
The four-year player, although he’s leaving as a Junior thanks to a medical redshirt, might well be the most NBA-ready player in this draft (behind Ben Simmons). Dunn can do almost everything a point guard could possibly need to do in the NBA, giving any team that drafts him the ability to plug him in immediately.
At Providence, Dunn ran the offense and showed off a well-developed sense of court vision. He put up over six assists a game for the Friars in 2015-2016, a decline from the previous year’s mark of 7.5. The drop is a bit curious, especially considering the fact that his usage rate stayed the same in both years, but it’s hardly a glaring red flag.
As the video above shows, Dunn can see the floor very well, especially in transition. He posted assist percentages of 50% and 41.8% the past two years, respectively. That 50% mark was first in the nation while the 41.8% total came in third, behind Oakland’s Kay Felder and Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine.
That highlight above also shows off another major strength of Dunn’s: pushing the ball in transition. According to Synergy Sports, over a quarter of his possessions came on the break, where he used his speed and ballhandling to burst down the court to the basket.
The Kris Dunn of two years ago was one with an absolutely broken jump shot, but that’s changed. Two summer’s worth of hard work on his form boosted his shooting numbers dramatically, going from a True Shooting Percentage of 47% in his freshman year to 54% in his last two. He shot 37 percent from the three-point line in the 2015-2016 season, suggesting that he could help with the Kings’ spacing problem.
Unfortunately, that jump shot isn’t always perfect. Dunn took a lot of long two-pointers last year, and his 29.6 percentage rate on those shots submarined his overall field-goal percentage down to a low 48%. Around the basket, however, Dunn’s got a strong shooting percentage of 62.6% (per Sports Reference).
His jump shot isn’t the only thing shaky about Dunn as a player. He struggled throughout his college career to control his turnovers, racking up a turnover rate of 22.6% in 2014-2015. He managed to bring that rate down to around 19% last year, but he was still tops in the NCAA in turnovers.
Dunn will have to control the turnovers when he gets to the NBA. If he can, with his physical tools and ability to both pass and get to the hoop, he has the potential to be a perennial All-Star.
The Kings are always in the need for those types of players, and Dunn would represent an eventual upgrade from Rajon Rondo. He might even be a better fit from the get-go, given the fact that he can shoot the basketball without needing a restraining order against his defenders.
The idea of pick and rolls with both DeMarcus Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein should be enough to make Kings fans salivate. Dunn ran the pick and roll expertly at Providence, and adding him to the existing big man duo in Sacramento is a recipe for easy lobs and baskets at the hoop.
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The biggest question with the pick is whether or not Dunn will actually fall to the Kings. The Celtics and Timberwolves, both of whom draft before Sacramento, may be interested in drafting a point guard, which could mean Dunn is off the board before Divac gets a chance to make the decision.
If Dunn is available, however, the Kings will want to take a long, hard look at the Providence product, based on his physical abilities, court vision, and improving shooting ability.