What’s Omri Casspi’s NBA Ceiling?

One interesting part of the Rudy Gay at power forward debate is the hole moving Rudy to the four leaves at the small forward position. The most likely candidate has to be Omri Casspi, who started 19 games for the Sacramento Kings while Gay was injured last season.

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But despite having started some games before, is Casspi really suited to be an NBA starter? If not, then that would probably put a pretty big hole in the Gay at power forward side of the debate–there are other Kings that can play there, and the same wouldn’t really be true of the small forward position.

So let’s see how Casspi compares to some of his contemporaries at the small forward position throughout the Western Conference. The following table juxtaposes Omri’s per 36 numbers with Gordon Hayward‘s, Trevor Ariza‘s, Harrison Barnes‘ and Chandler Parsons‘.

Rk	Player	Age	GS	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Trevor Ariza	29	82	2930	11.2	.402	6.8	.350	1.8	.853	5.6	2.6	1.9	0.2	1.7	2.3	12.9
2	Harrison Barnes	22	82	2318	10.2	.482	3.3	.405	2.3	.720	7.0	1.8	0.9	0.3	1.1	2.3	12.8
3	Omri Casspi	26	19	1416	10.9	.489	2.2	.402	4.9	.733	6.6	2.6	0.8	0.2	2.2	2.7	15.1
4	Gordon Hayward	24	76	2618	14.9	.445	4.5	.364	6.4	.812	5.1	4.3	1.5	0.4	2.8	1.8	20.1
5	Chandler Parsons	26	66	2186	13.7	.462	5.7	.380	3.2	.720	5.3	2.7	1.1	0.3	1.6	2.3	17.1

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/17/2015.

From these numbers, it’d seem that Casspi holds up pretty well against some other Western Conference small forwards. His blocking and steals are down, but he’s better than most of the competition at rebounding and three-point percentage, middle of the pack in scoring and actually leads the five forwards in field goal percentage.

So from this table alone, it seems that Casspi holds up for sure–he actually stacks up really well against these other four, who are all quality starting small forwards. Unfortunately, there’s more data out there than just this table (and also Casspi suffers from a small sample size, which makes me automatically skeptical).

Let’s check out some advanced numbers from this group, and see how our pal Omri holds up in that light:

Player	Age	MP	PER	TS%	3PAr	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	WS/48	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
Trevor Ariza	29	2930	12.7	.539	.610	8.6	11.1	2.6	0.5	12.7	16.5	.108	0.6	1.3	1.9	2.9
Harrison Barnes	22	2318	13.4	.573	.328	10.5	6.9	1.3	0.6	9.0	14.9	.139	0.5	0.6	1.1	1.8
Omri Casspi	26	1416	14.4	.580	.204	10.4	11.8	1.1	0.5	14.7	18.7	.091	0.0	-1.3	-1.3	0.3
Gordon Hayward	24	2618	20.2	.567	.304	8.2	21.7	2.2	0.9	13.8	26.2	.159	3.3	0.1	3.4	3.6
Chandler Parsons	26	2186	16.3	.567	.419	8.1	11.4	1.6	0.7	9.5	20.6	.121	2.7	-0.2	2.5	2.5

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/17/2015.

These numbers paint a bit of a worse picture for Casspi–specifically pertaining to his defense. Besides Parsons, Casspi is the only forward in the group to have a negative defensive box plus/minus. His lack of steals and blocks (also shown in his steal and block percentage in this table) are indicative of a bigger problem–Casspi isn’t a very good defender.

This is also displayed in his defensive rating–Casspi allows 110 points scored per 100 possessions, which is the worst in that group. So like most players, Omri Casspi has strong and weak points to his game. His strengths are shooting and scoring–he’s an efficient offensive weapon. besides his penchant for turning the ball over far too often.

But his weakness is defense, where he’s been a sieve thus far in his career. So that leaves the question from the beginning of the article–what is Casspi’s ceiling? And can he start at small forward?

Let’s look at some NBA players who have a worse or equivalent defensive rating, to get a feel for how many bad defenders get playing time in the Association these days:

Player	Tm	G	MP	FGA	FG%	3PA	3P	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	ORtg	DRtg ▾
Tim Hardaway	NYK	70	1681	22.5	.389	11.1	.342	4.9	.801	4.9	4.0	0.6	0.4	2.6	3.7	25.2	101	114
Zach LaVine	MIN	77	1902	18.1	.422	4.5	.341	4.7	.842	5.7	7.4	1.4	0.3	5.2	4.2	20.8	95	114
Andrew Wiggins	MIN	82	2969	19.5	.437	2.2	.310	8.0	.760	6.4	2.9	1.5	0.9	3.0	3.3	23.8	103	114
Jose Calderon	NYK	42	1270	14.7	.415	5.9	.415	1.3	.906	5.1	8.2	1.3	0.0	3.1	3.2	15.8	103	113
Nik Stauskas	SAC	73	1127	13.2	.365	6.7	.322	2.9	.859	3.9	3.0	0.9	0.8	1.8	4.1	14.2	100	113
Nick Young	LAL	42	1000	24.3	.366	11.5	.369	7.6	.892	4.9	2.1	1.2	0.6	2.2	4.2	28.8	105	113
Jordan Clarkson	LAL	59	1476	20.6	.448	4.2	.314	5.5	.829	6.6	7.1	1.8	0.4	3.3	3.8	24.3	107	112
Ben McLemore	SAC	82	2670	15.7	.437	7.4	.358	3.0	.813	4.5	2.6	1.5	0.4	2.6	4.1	18.8	104	112
Langston Galloway	NYK	45	1457	18.5	.399	6.4	.352	2.8	.808	6.9	5.4	1.9	0.4	2.2	4.7	19.3	101	111
Eric Gordon	NOP	61	2018	18.1	.411	8.2	.448	3.5	.805	4.1	6.0	1.3	0.4	3.2	3.8	21.3	106	111
Carl Landry	SAC	70	1192	15.6	.515	0.0	6.3	.820	11.3	1.1	0.6	0.7	2.3	5.6	21.2	115	111
Ty Lawson	DEN	75	2665	17.4	.436	3.8	.341	6.8	.730	4.4	13.5	1.7	0.2	3.5	2.4	21.4	113	111
J.J. Redick	LAC	78	2409	19.7	.477	9.6	.437	4.3	.901	3.5	2.9	0.8	0.2	2.0	2.8	26.9	118	111
Ryan Anderson	NOP	61	1675	22.9	.399	11.3	.340	4.7	.854	9.3	1.7	1.0	0.6	1.9	3.5	26.1	109	110
Carmelo Anthony	NYK	40	1428	29.7	.444	6.6	.341	8.7	.797	9.7	4.5	1.5	0.6	3.3	3.2	35.6	106	110
D.J. Augustin	TOT	82	1964	16.9	.399	6.4	.337	5.3	.868	4.2	9.2	1.3	0.1	3.8	2.4	20.2	107	110
Kobe Bryant	LAL	35	1207	30.2	.373	7.8	.293	10.2	.813	8.4	8.3	2.0	0.3	5.4	2.8	33.1	96	110
Omri Casspi	SAC	67	1416	15.2	.489	3.1	.402	6.8	.733	9.2	3.6	1.1	0.3	3.1	3.8	21.1	110	110
Darren Collison	SAC	45	1565	17.7	.473	5.2	.373	5.9	.788	4.6	8.1	2.2	0.5	3.6	3.1	23.3	112	110

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/17/2015.

Clearly there are a lot of less-than-stellar defensive players that get significant minutes in the NBA–including Kings’ teammates Darren Collison and Ben McLemore. So Casspi’s defensive problems aren’t a surefire sign he can’t start–hell, he’s a full four points per 100 possessions better than young standout Andrew Wiggins.

But he will need some good defenders around him–the Kings’ backcourt combinations should definitely help with that. DeMarcus Cousins, Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos are all plus defenders, meaning anyone getting past Casspi (or Collison or McLemore, for that matter) should run into a wall once they make it to the paint.

Plus if Rajon Rondo gets back to even close to his prime defensive ability, there’s another solid player that can help cover for Casspi. So if his offensive game stays where it is or improves and he manages to pick up his defense just a bit thanks to the help around him, I could see Casspi being a solid starter for an NBA team.

So I suppose the Rudy Gay at power forward debate can live to see another day.

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