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Rudy Gay and George Karl’s Offense: Will He Fit?

By Zack Zolmer

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The introduction of advanced analytics has stressed the importance of a few, particular basketball talents. Inside scoring, passing and three-point shooting are offensive staples crucial to the ultimate successes of today’s NBA teams—as are the players adept at these skills.

It’s the revolution of the role player. How else could Danny Green, a career .420 three-point shooter who can hardly dribble, receive $45 million for his limited — though unmistakably important — talents. Same goes for DeMarre Carroll, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Marco Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy and Kyle Singler. The list goes on and on.

But it ends at Rudy Gay. For all that analytics has done to help the reputations of dozens of players, it has killed Gay’s, who, by unfortunate timing, became the poster child against the progressive basketball movement that now influences all NBA coaches and front office members not named Byron Scott.

Now, with a head coach whose offensive principles mostly mirror those of the analytics community, questions over Rudy’s actual value persist. Can he score efficiently without compromising his overall ability? Can he properly adapt into George Karl’s system?

To understand concerns over Gay’s potential production as a King, one must have an accurate understanding of what, exactly, George Karl’s offensive system entails.

The following is from a coaching profile on George Karl, by Beckley Mason:

"“Karl’s philosophy, dubbed ‘Random Basketball,’ is really an ad hoc system. There aren’t intricate rules, per se, but there are fixed guidelines and easily understood goals. Karl wants 30 free throws, 30 layups and 30 assists every game, which reflects his core beliefs in ball movement, pushing the ball quickly up court and driving to the rim. The only real restrictions on offense: Don’t hold the ball and don’t take 2-point jump shots.”"

In his career, Gay has essentially lived off 2-point jump shots. In nine NBA seasons, 21 percent of Rudy’s field goal attempts have come from two-pointers 16+ feet from the basket, per Basketball-Reference. Eighty-one percent of his total FGA have come from inside the arc, meaning attempted threes make up just 19 percent of Gay’s offense. Compare that to fellow upper-tier small forwards Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons, whose three-point tries account for roughly 27 percent and 39 percent of their offensive shot attempts, respectively.

And the percentage of three-pointers for which Rudy is assisted is shockingly low. While 95 percent of Leonard’s threes and 93 percent of Parsons’s threes are assisted, only 82 percent of Gay’s career threes have come via an assist. This is evidence of both a) holding the ball, and b) attempting more dribble pull-up threes than spot-up ones (the latter of which is far more preferable).

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Based on these numbers alone, you can appreciate what are legitimate concerns over Gay’s fit in Karl’s offense. History predicts incompatibility.

Nevertheless, in 20 games as Karl’s star forward, Rudy’s play suggested otherwise.

Seeing time at both forward spots, Gay’s usage rate increased marginally after last year’s All-Star break, from 26.4 percent before to 28.6 percent after Karl took over. Per game, Rudy averaged more free throws, attempted more threes, and saw his points (19.9 to 23.9), three-point percentage (.340 to .392) and overall field goal percentage (.444 to .479) increase in Karl’s offense. Though his turnovers per game rose from 2.6 to 2.9 and his assists dropped from 3.9 per game to 3.2, you’ll take that marginal decline with his increased efficiency.

Small sample size aside, Gay’s numbers under Karl are very encouraging. When you consider the lack of team practices and the absence of a training camp to sufficiently install a completely new offensive scheme, those stats become all the more impressive.

There is reason — and statistical evidence — to support the idea that Rudy can succeed, and perhaps thrive under Karl. It’s unlikely he can sustain a 39 percent clip from beyond the arc, but he can stay in that ballpark. If or when his three-point shot does command more attention, he will open up driving lanes, collapse the defense and allow for kick-out opportunities to open shooters (paramount in a dribble-drive offense).

And despite talk of more spot-up threes and less long twos, Gay needn’t abandon his mid-range jumper entirely. Quite the opposite. If advanced basketball data preaches any one consistent theme, it’s that a team or player should play to its or his strengths. While, in general, a mid-range jump shot may not be the most efficient way to score, for Rudy it’s a strength. George Karl knows this. At the end of the day, he’ll adapt the offense to fit his personnel, like any Hall of Fame head coach would.

Last season, with Kevin Durant missing significant time due to injury, Gay led all Western Conference small forwards in points, scoring 21.1 per game, per ESPN. His field goal percentage (.455) trailed only that of Chandler Parsons, Kawhi Leonard and Harrison Barnes, and his free throw percentage (.858) was good for third in the West.

We tend to forget just how good Rudy Gay is.

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