A Royal Pain
Fansided

FiveThirtyEight pegs Sacramento Kings as worst team in the Western Conference

By Jonathan Roberts

SACRAMENTO, CA - MARCH 17: Sacramento Kings players (L-R) De'Aaron Fox #5, Nemanja Bjelica #88, Bogdan Bogdanovic #8, Harrison Barnes #40 and Marvin Bagley III #35 celebrate a play during a timeout from the game against the Chicago Bulls at Golden 1 Center on March 17, 2019 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - MARCH 17: Sacramento Kings players (L-R) De'Aaron Fox #5, Nemanja Bjelica #88, Bogdan Bogdanovic #8, Harrison Barnes #40 and Marvin Bagley III #35 celebrate a play during a timeout from the game against the Chicago Bulls at Golden 1 Center on March 17, 2019 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

FiveThirtyEight released their “way-to-early” 2019-20 projections, and have the Sacramento Kings finishing 33-49 — last in the Western Conference.

Coming off a surprising 39-43 season in 2019-20, most expect the Sacramento Kings to improve next season after making a flurry of roster improvements through free agency. The same can’t be said for FiveThirtyEight, a statistical analysis website.

Using their Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization, they’ve pegged the Sacramento Kings to have a worse season than every Western Conference team, and all but five teams in the East.

In their article, they say their CARMELO model anticipates the Phoenix Suns to jump “from 19 wins to 36 wins on the strength of better play from Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton,” and the addition of “better-rated” talent in free agency.

For the Kings, things aren’t as optimistic.

"“It doesn’t have much faith in the Kings to replicate last season’s breakout; in fairness, it never had much faith to begin with,” wrote FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine. “We’ll see if they keep defying our computer.”"

In fairness to FiveThirtyEight, the Western Conference got a lot tougher over the offseason with Kawhi Leonard coming over to the West, as well as several other above-average players and the development of some new super-duos. But that’s not a valid enough reason to peg the Sacramento Kings as the worst team in the West.

Related Story. How deep are the Sacramento Kings?. light

It’s entirely possible the Sacramento Kings only see marginal to no improvement next season because of the West’s new arms race. They won’t, however, regress to the point of bottom-feeder.

Having added Cory Joseph, Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon and Richaun Holmes, getting a full season of Harrison Barnes and continued improvement from De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley III and Harry Giles III, there’s virtually no way the Sacramento Kings regress that much, barring injury.

In all honesty, there’s as good of a chance the Kings finish with 50 wins as they do 33, that’s how ludicrous this projection is. They do have a 7% chance to make the playoffs though, which is…something?

This was a similar issue last season when FiveThirtyEight pegged the Kings for an NBA-worst 23 wins, but, then again, last season shocked all of us, including the entire A Royal Pain team.

This year though, things are different and the Sacramento Kings are coming off an incredible season — the momentum from which could very well propel the Kings into the playoffs in 2019-20.

Next. Three takeaways from the offseason. dark

How many wins do you think the Kings will have this season? Let us know on Twitter or Facebook @ARoyalPain. 

Home/Kings News