It may be time to start worrying about Keegan Murray

Listen, before we say what we're about to say, you need to know that there are few people on this planet who are as high on Keegan Murray as we are at A Royal Pain. We believe that the fully idealized version of him can be one of the best role players on the planet.

However, there is one element of his game, a very crucial element, that has not been present for over a year that could seriously limit his long-term potential if it doesn't turn around soon.

Did Keegan Murray forget how to shoot?

A big reason why Murray is such a tantalizing prospect is that he has two things that help you out a great deal in today's NBA: size (6'8, with a 6'11 wingspan) and the ability to shoot. During his rookie year, he set the record for most 3-pointers hit during his rookie season (206). He did it on great efficiency, too – hitting 41.1% of his 3-point attempts.

Unfortunately, last year, when he took a massive leap as a defender (going from the 28th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus to the 85th percentile), it coincided with a major dip in his 3-point percentage. During his sophomore year, Murray only converted on 35.8% of his threes.

Now, it isn't atypical for a great shooter to have a down year from downtown at one point in their career (see Kevin Huerter). And given Murray's track record as a shooter (he hit 39.8% of his threes during his sophomore year of college), most of us were willing to overlook this dip.

However, 15 games into Year 3, and not only is the shooting not getting better, it's getting worse. On the season, Murray is hitting 29.9% of his triples. On top of that, his 3-point volume has gone down significantly as well. Murray is now in the 51st percentile in 3-point attempts per 75 possessions after finishing in the 85th and 79th percentile in his rookie and sophomore seasons, respectively.

It is worth noting that we are still very early in the year, and there is plenty of time for Murray to turn things around. But if it does't happen, that changes everything for Murray and the Sacramento Kings.

There are a lot of long, athletic wings/forwards in the NBA who can defend. What separates them from the elite role players (like Murray can be) is their shooting. Most players in this archetype are below-average shooters. So, when you find one who is average/above average, you treat them like gold.

Hopefully, the Kings can continue to treat Murray like gold.