Kevin Huerter trade will get much worse if Kings don't improve in 2025

When the Sacramento Kings traded for Kevin Huerter in the 2022 offseason, they made a good call. In his first season, Huerter averaged 15.2 PPG while shooting 40.2% on his 6.8 3-point attempts per game. When he was on the floor, the Kings were in the 96th percentile in offensive rating (per Cleaning the Glass). Oh, and he played a key role in snapping the Kings' dreaded playoff drought.

This season, Huerter regressed a little bit, but I'd chalk most of that up to him having a down year from three (36.1%). Down years are pretty common for volume snipers like Huerter. Ray Allen, a career 40% 3-point shooter, had three seasons where he shot 36.4% or lower from three.

Anyway, when we look back on the Kings' decision to trade for Huerter years from now, it will remain a good call so long as they have a strong 2024-25 season.

Why is that, you ask? If you'll recall, when the Kings traded for Huerter, they gave the Atlanta Hawks Justin Holiday, Moe Harkless, and a protected 2024 first round pick.

Holiday and Harkless don't factor much into the calculus here since they are no longer employed by Atlanta. Meanwhile, the 2024 first round pick had a lottery protection on it, meaning that if it landed in the top 14, it would move to 2025.

As many of you are well aware, the pick did fall in the top 14 (13th pick). So, now we turn our sights to the next draft. The 2025 pick is also protected (top 12 protected). So, if the Kings fall in the top 12 (considering I'll be covering them next season, I pray they don't), the pick moves to 2026.

But let's forget about the logistics of the pick after that and focus on 2025. It is important that the Kings have a strong 2024-25 season so that the pick falls well outside of the top 12 and becomes a late first round pick.

Huerter is a solid starter, and solid starters tend to be worth a decent first round pick on the open market. However, it is much easier to swallow trading a first round pick that falls to number 23 than it is if that pick lands at, say, number 14.

While there are always late first round steals, you tip your cap to any team that uncovers one, and it is a known fact that your chances of landing a star improve the higher up your spot is in the draft.

The beautiful thing is that the Kings are in complete control of their own destiny in this situation. They can make the pick they are giving to the Hawks as bad as they want it to be (thereby protecting the legacy of the the Huerter trade). All they need to do is just win, baby.