Tonight, the Sacramento Kings square off against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the NBA's sixth annual Play-In Tournament (its fifth in this current format).
Given that this is a nine/ten matchup, the loser of this game doesn't get a second chance. This is a due-or-die game in every sense of the word. Win, or go home for summer vacation.
Even without Kyrie Irving (who is out for the season after tearing his ACL), the Mavericks are no walk in the park. To beat them, the Kings will need to be at their best. With this in mind, there is a good chance that the outcome of this game could be contingent on this one stat.
Basketball games are won in the paint
Everyone likes to say today's NBA game is all about the three ball, but the most valuable part of the court is still in the paint. In fact, the average shot at the rim (1.39 points per possession) is still worth more than the average 3-pointer (1.08 PPP).
Ever since Anthony Davis returned from injury on March 24, the Mavericks have been tied for fifth in the NBA in points per game (54.5 points in the paint per game, per NBA.com). They are especially formidable in this regard when they are sporting their double big lineups.
As we've discussed all season long, the Kings are lacking in the size category. Plus, their starting center, Domantas Sabonis, isn't much of a rim protector (sixth percentile block rate among bigs, per Cleaning the Glass).
As a result, the Kings tend to protect the paint by committee – often helping off shooters to create more obstacles for finishers around the rim. On the season, this strategy has worked, as the Kings have the second-lowest rim frequency in the NBA.
If the Kings can clog up the paint against this Mavericks team, they should be in good shape. Usually, when the Kings do this, teams can counter by having their drivers spray the ball out to open players on the perimeter. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, this current iteration of their roster touts very little in the way of spacing (they are 25th in 3-point percentages in Davis' return).
So, unless the Mavericks are shooting above their head (which is always possible in this game), the Kings should be in good shape if they protect the paint. But if the Mavericks can find their way to muscle their way in despite all the congestion down there, the Kings could be starting their offseason tomorrow.
Long story short, if stats are your thing, I'd track the Mavericks' points in the paint during this game because it may very well be the deciding factor in this play-in matchup.