Predicting how much Keegan Murray's rookie extension contract will be

On Monday, teams had their last chance to sign their 2021 NBA Draft picks to a rookie extension (the contract that comes after your initial rookie deal).

Since the Sacramento Kings gave up on their 2021 pick (Davion Mitchell), fans didn't have much to look forward to. However, there was still something we could learn from all the new deals that were inked.

How much will the Sacramento Kings pay Keegan Murray next year?

Next offseason/preseason, the Kings will have to negotiate a rookie extension with their 2022 NBA Draft pick Keegan Murray (4th overall pick). As we've discussed on numerous occasions on this website, Murray is the Kings' most important role player, and they need to make sure they treat him that way.

So, how much does it cost to make a young player with high-end two-way potential happy in the year 2025 (which is when this deal will be negotiated)?

While they aren't exactly like one another*, a great player to compare Murray to from this past cycle of rookie extensions is New Orleans Pelicans' forward Trey Murphy III. For those who are unaware, Murphy inked a four-year, 112-million dollar extension.

(*Sidebar: Murphy is a better athlete and finisher than Murray. Meanwhile, Murray is stronger and a better defender – particularly on the perimeter – than Murphy.)

Here's what that would look like for Murray based on the changes in the salary cap:

At a glance, a four-year, 120-million dollar extension may sound insane for a player who will likely never exceed the 20 PPG mark. But when it comes to contracts, you can't focus on the numbers. Rather, you focus on the % of the salary cap.

In this theoretical deal, Murray would be getting between 14.5% and 15.9% of the salary cap from 2026 to 2030. That is a great price to pay for a player who has the potential to be a high end starter in this league for a long time (for reference, All-Stars/All-NBA players get about 25% to 35% of the salary cap).