Predicting how many games Sacramento Kings will win this season

With the 2024-25 NBA regular season (finally) almost here, everyone is talking about the Sacramento Kings and what their year could be. After a 0-5 preseason, some folks may see this as cause for concern. But as we've written on this website multiple times before, you can't look too much into wins and losses in the preseason (see the Detroit Lions 2008 preseason).

So, how many games will the Kings win in 2024-25?

Looking at last season

Last season, the Kings went 46-36. In today's ultra-competitive NBA, bringing back the same team is basically guaranteed to take off a few losses. So, let's say we take off two losses from the Kings right off the bat.

However, one could argue that the Kings don't need to pay that same tax since they had the worst opponent shooting luck in the league last year, and it is highly unlikely that such a volatile statistic repeats itself in back-to-back seasons. So, let's just assume this year they have more average luck in that regard and get those two wins back.

As for injury luck, it may have seemed like the Kings had terrible fortune because of the timing of the losses to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. But the truth is that the team had the sixth-fewest games lost due to injury last season (per Spotrac).

The Kings have a relatively healthy team. Domantas Sabonis is a battle ox (played all 82 games last year), and marquee offseason acquisition DeMar DeRozan is also an iron man (also played all 82). So, this isn't all luck. But still, it is unlikely that they continue to have such great health (*knock wood I'm wrong*). Let's take one game off to account for this.

Factoring in what's changed

The biggest change to this roster is the presence of DeRozan. DeRozan will functionally replace Harrison Barnes from last year's team. And while there is a lot more to team building than what is within the scope of the article, it is worth mentioning that DeRozan earned an estimated nine wins last season, compared to Barnes' 2.2 (per Dunks & Threes). Even if you have a pretty pessimistic outlook on this trade, this stat suggests that the DeRozan upgrade adds at least three wins.

Other than DeRozan, the most significant addition to this team is first round pick Devin Carter. Unfortunately, Carter is set to miss the first few months of the season, and there is no real guarantee that we see him this season. So, let's call him a wash for now.

Outside of Carter, the Kings also have Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray as two young players who could take a massive step forward this year. Estimating the growth of a burgeoning player can be tricky. So, to keep things simple, let's just say that both of them improve enough to each add a win.

The only other major variable to consider* here is a potential trade for an upgrade at power forward (which would likely involve Huerter). But given how uncertain that possibility is, it isn't really worth trying to weigh right now.

Based on this math, the Kings should win roughly 50 games this season. If that happens, it will be the first time they've done that since 2004-05.

(*Sidebar: We could talk about how Huerter and Murray both had uncharacteristically down shooting years last year. But the team only shot 0.3% worse from three than they did in 2022-23. So, it appears enough players on the team shot above their heads to make up for it, making this not a significant enough factor to weigh in this equation).