The case for Jalen McDaniels being a good pickup for the Kings

On Thursday, the Sacramento Kings traded Davion Mitchell, Sasha Vezenkov, and the 45th overall pick over to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Jalen McDaniels.

On the surface, this transaction seems like a pure cost-saver for the Kings. Vezenkov still had another two years on his deal (and may have been unhappy in Sacramento). Meanwhile, McDaniels only has one more year (at roughly 4.7 million, per Spotrac) left before he becomes a free agent next offseason. On top of that, it created an extra roster spot for them to sign Isaiah Crawford (the potential steal of the draft).

(Sidebar: The trade also helped them shore up their guard depth to make room for the newly-acquired Devin Carter.)

McDaniels was also statistically one of the worst basketball players in the association, placing in the first percentile in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM, per Dunks & Threes). But there is hope that he could contribute in a positive way to the Kings next season.

Could McDaniels Be Next Season's Derrick Jones Jr.?

Listen, every year, there is always an offseason transaction or two that seems largely inconsequential at the time, only to end up being a big deal. Last year, the best example of this phenomenon was Derrick Jones Jr. signing with the Dallas Mavericks on a veteran minimum contract.  

Now, it is true that Jones Jr. didn't have nearly as bad of 2022-23 as McDaniels did in 2023-24. But the two players do come from the same archetypal family (lengthy, athletic wings/forwards that lean toward defense). So, this comparison isn't being manufactured from thin air.

Some numbers that make me cautiously optimistic about McDaniels. First, he's only going to be 26 years old heading into next season. It's not like he's aging out of his prime right now. McDaniels also measures in at 6'10 with a 7'0.25 length, meaning that he adds some much-needed length to this relatively small (guard-heavy) Kings team.

McDaniels also placed in the 67th percentile in steal rate last year. So, he offers defensive playmaking to a team that could use some extra juice in that category (10th in opponent turnover percentage). As a general rule, when you have weaker rim protection (as is the case on a team that starts Domantas Sabonis at center), it is a good idea to try and create more turnovers so as to avoid having to contest a high volume of shots at the rim.

Speaking of rim protection, at McDaniels' size, he should, in theory, be able to provide some positional rim protection, which should help compensate for Sabonis' woes in that area. Last season, McDaniels didn't post a very high block rate. But he definitely has the aptitude for it, especially when you look at seasons before 2023-24.

Another thing that killed McDaniels with the Raptors is that he shot 16.9% from three. When you are a non-center who plays off-ball, that is basically a death sentence. But McDaniels has had better shooting seasons in the past. In 2021-22, he shot 38% from three, and in 2022-23 he converted on 33.2% of his triples. Plus, it's not like he's some terrible free throw shooter (77.7% for his career). McDaniels isn't the abysmal that 2023-24 would make you believe. A little more luck next year, and he could be much more serviceable in that area, too.

Earlier, we cited McDaniels as having an EPM in the 1st percentile last year. Well, just the year before, he finished in the 55th percentile in the same metric! The bottom line is that McDaniels has the capability of being a rotation player on an NBA roster. And while I am much (much) more optimistic about Crawford's potential, I won't rule out the possibility that McDaniels could leave a positive mark on this Kings team next season.