As you may have already heard by now, Phoenix Suns star forward Kevin Durant suffered a left ankle sprain in the team's blowout loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday. The injury is expected to keep him out for at least one week.
You never want to see an athlete go down with an injury, regardless of what team they play for. However, at the end of the day, Durant's injury is relevant to the Sacramento Kings as the Suns trail them by one game in the race for the tenth seed (the final spot in the Play-In Tournament).
But even with this boost in their odds of making the Play-In, the Kings are still a long shot to make it to the playoffs for the second time in three years.
Kings' chances at the playoffs are slim
The best-case scenario for the Kings (thanks to their recent stretch of poor play) is to catch the Dallas Mavericks for the ninth seed. Even then, the Kings would still need to win two play-in games, and at least one of those games would be on the road (against either the Los Angeles Clippers or Minnesota Timberwolves).
According to Opta Analyst's Playoff Prediction Model, the Kings have just a 14.4% chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Suns have a 5.2%, and the Mavericks have a 20% shot (despite all the injuries they have had to endure).
And even if they do manage to sneak into the eighth spot in the West, they get rewarded with a first round matchup against the historically-great Oklahoma City Thunder.
Durant injury hurts the Kings' chances of keeping their draft pick
The Durant injury represents a double-edged sword for the Kings. Yes, it increases their odds of making the Play-In Tournament, but it also decreases their chances of keeping their 2025 first round pick.
As we've discussed before, the Kings need to get a top-12 pick to avoid forfeiting the pick over to the Atlanta Hawks (as a result of the Kevin Huerter trade from 2022).
As it stands, the Kings have the 13th-worst record in the league. The Suns are sitting at 12th, and with Durant potentially sidelined the rest of the way, it would take a major collapse from the Kings to leapfrog them in the draft rankings. So, in that situation, the only way the Kings could keep their pick is if the lottery balls bounce in their favor and they secure a top four pick somehow (they currently have a 4.7% chance of doing this, per Tankathon).
No matter how you slice it, the Kings are not in a good spot right now.