For the record, I am almost always against the idea of tanking. To me, it is basketball nihilism. You should try to win as many games as possible and let the draft chips fall where they may. Besides, if your front office is smart enough, you should be able to find a good player wherever you are in the draft.
Still, this wouldn't be a Sacramento Kings page if we didn't discuss the opportunity to tank when one presented itself. So, without further ado, here is how the Kings can stealth tank their way into keeping their 2025 NBA Draft pick.
How the Kings can keep their 2025 NBA Draft pick
As you'll recall, the Kings traded a first round pick to the Atlanta Hawks in 2022 when they acquired the services of Kevin Huerter. The pick started out as a lottery-protected first in 2024, but since the Kings finished in the top 14, it became a top 12 protected first in 2025.
To keep their pick, the Kings would need to either have one of the top 12 spots or luck their way into the top four. The latter is very unlikely. As you can see from the chart below, it is extremely difficult for teams in the back of the draft lottery to jump into the top four (data provided by Tankathon).
Seeds | Odds of Top 4 Spot |
|---|---|
11 | 9.4% |
12 | 6.1% |
13 | 5.7% |
14 | 2.4% |
As it stands, the Kings have the 14th seed in the NBA Draft Lottery. If they can get the 12th seed, they have a 92.3% chance of getting a top 12 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, thereby enabling them to keep their pick.
A few weeks ago, falling down this far in the standings seemed improbable. However, after losing six of their last eight games, the Kings are just 1.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks (the teams occupying the 13th and 12th seed in the lottery, respectively).
If the Kings want to keep their pick in this draft and add another young piece to their core, they can stealth tank their way down the standings.
This wouldn't be that hard to do, either. The Kings have the seventh-highest remaining strength of schedule. Meanwhile, the Mavericks plan on bringing back Anthony Davis soon, and the Suns have a ton of incentive to try and push for a play-in spot (they have the highest active cap sheet in 2024-25, per Spotrac).
I think the Kings have a solid team and one that, when healthy, can make some noise in the play-in tournament. However, if they wanted to tank and keep their pick, it wouldn't be all that difficult.