The stat that decides whether the Sacramento Kings will win or lose

Basketball is a complicated game, and it usually can't be explained by one or two simple data points. But there is always an exception to the rule, and for the NBA, that anomaly is the 2024-25 Sacramento Kings.

So far this year, there is one statistic that almost always determines whether or not the Kings (8-10 and losers of four straight games) will win or lose.

Sacramento Kings' opponent 3-point shooting

As the headline above suggests, the area to focus on during Kings' games is opponent 3-point shooting. This season, the Kings are 2-9 when their opponent shoots over 40% from three, and 6-1 when their opponent shoots under 40%. That means that 15 of their 18 games (83.3%) have followed this trend.

For most teams, this wouldn't be super concerning. After all, it is a make-or-miss league. So, it makes sense that on the nights your opponent makes their shots, they win, and on the nights they don't, they lose.

The problem is that the Kings are forfeiting these eruptions more frequently than any other team in the NBA.

But...why?

Why teams are killing the Sacramento Kings from deep

The first component to discuss here is something we've talked about extensively at A Royal Pain: opponent shooting luck. Shooting, particularly from three, is a very volatile statistic, and every year, some teams have better luck in this category than others.

This year, the Kings have run into some bad shooting luck to start the season. An easy way to measure this is by looking at how well teams are shooting on wide-open threes against them. According to NBA.com, teams are shooting 42% on wide-open threes against the Kings – the fifth-highest mark in the NBA.

In most cases, bad shooting luck eventually regresses to the mean. So, hopefully, this will help the Kings in this area.

However, the team isn't completely devoid of any blame. The way the team chooses to defend also plays a part here.

The Kings, with Domantas Sabonis as their starting center, don't have much by way of traditional rim protection. So, they choose to send extra bodies to the paint in order to limit shots around the rim. As a result, the Kings give up the fewest shots around the rim (per Cleaning the Glass).

That decision comes at a cost. The Kings may not give up a ton of shots at the rim, but they do surrender a great deal of 3-pointers (third-highest frequency in the NBA). As a general rule, the more threes you allow, the more you leave yourself vulnerable to a hot shooting stretch (see the Boston Celtics).

It's also worth noting that the Kings are especially vulnerable to great opponent shooting because of their own shooting woes. As of writing this, they are in the bottom five in 3-point percentage (32.8%).

Anyway, if someone asks you to predict if the Kings won or lost their most recent game, ask them what the other team shot from three because that will (probably) tell you everything you need to know.