The Sacramento Kings may just be 6-5 and hardly eligible for the play-in tournament if it started today (they are currently 10th in the Western Conference), but that doesn't mean they are destined for mediocrity.
In fact, there is one data point that suggests that the 2024-25 Kings have championship-level upside.
Championship Lineup Indicator
Last season, I ran a study looking at the best lineups from past champions. What I found is that basically every past champion fielded a five-man lineup featuring all/most of their best players that posted a +9 point differential per 100 possessions (or greater) in at least 300 non-garbage time possession (which can be tracked by Cleaning the Glass).
As it stands, only three lineup permutations have played at least 300 non-garbage time possessions. So, we can't get a perfect picture of what teams have championship-caliber lineups. But we can get a glimpse of who could have one come the season's end. Here are the top 10 lineups in terms of point differential via a tweet from the gifted analyst Charlie Cummings (who you should follow on Twitter).
These are the 10 best lineups by point differential (minimum 100 possessions) per @cleantheglass
— Charlie Cummings (@klaytheist11) November 12, 2024
What stands out to you? pic.twitter.com/I6Jkxn4tgf
As you can see from the graphic above, not only do the Kings have a lineup with a +9 point differential, but they currently boast the five-man combination with the highest point differential in the league. That quintet consists of De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, and Domantas Sabonis. When they are together (107 non-garbage time possessions), the crew has a point differential of +43 per 100, which is 17.5 points better than the next-best team.
Before you ask, the Kings did not have a "championship lineup" last season. So, you can't say that this is always the case and that they still end up being a play-in team/first round exit. Their best lineup that played at least 300 non-garbage time possessions last year was their usual starting five (Fox, Murray, Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, and Harrison Barnes), and they were only a +6.2 per 100.
Now, there are a couple of hold your horses factors to add to all this. First, this lineup has not played 300 non-garbage time possessions together yet. So, the sample size is still too small to really get a true idea of how potent they are. And second, with Monk now sidelined for multiple weeks, this group won't even get to play together (and add more data to their sample) for the foreseeable future.
With all this in mind, the Kings have a stronger best punch than they did last year, and that alone should keep Kings fans optimistic about this season (for now).