Stat shows that Keon Ellis is the Sacramento Kings’ most valuable player when he starts

So far, one of the biggest storylines of the 2024-25 season for the Sacramento Kings has been Keon Ellis’ playing time, or, at times, lack thereof. 

Last season, Ellis was the shining star in an otherwise mediocre season for the team (the Kings’ fell one win short of qualifying for the postseason for the second straight year).  After going undrafted in 2022, Ellis breakthrough in his sophomore season, ending the season as the team’s nominal starting shooting guard. 

Ellis made a name for himself as a rock-solid two-way role player. He could space the floor (41.7% 3-point shooter in 2023-24) and attack closeouts on offense (88th percentile drives true shooting, per NBA.com), and safeguard the perimeter and paint on defense (94th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes). In fact, Ellis was such a stout defender that the Kings were third in defensive rating after he was placed permanently in the starting lineup.

However, for some reason, the positive momentum he forged didn’t carry over into the 2024-25 season. Despite a strong showing in the preseason, Ellis was demoted back to the bench when Kevin Huerter returned from his shoulder injury (which kind of makes sense, given Huerter’s unique abilities as a movement shooter). 

Then, in the Kings’ second game of the season (against the Los Angeles Lakers), Ellis received the dreaded DNP-CD, inspiring outrage among Kings' fans/analysts alike.

Saturday was the cherry on top. Huerter had to miss the game against the Toronto Raptors with an illness. One would think that this would signal a start for head coach Mike Brown. But alas, the Kings decided they needed to replace Huerter's movement shooting. So, they gave Doug McDermott the nod.

Brown finally caved in after the Kings' defeat to the Raptors and tapped Ellis for his first start of the season on Monday against the Miami Heat when it was determined that Huerter would need to miss another game. And what did Ellis do? Just put together a performance that should cement his place in the starting lineup.

Keon Ellis is becoming a plus-minus God

At a glance, Ellis' box score is solid, but it is far from jaw-dropping. In nearly 29 minutes of action, he scored seven points, secured three rebounds, handed out two assists, and nabbed three steals. Not bad, but not great, either.

But a closer look at the box score, and you will see that Ellis posted a plus-minus of +22. That number marked a game-high for both sides. And more importantly, it came in a game that ended up being decided by a single point. So, without Ellis, the Kings are probably 3-4 instead of 4-3.

It is worth noting that looking at single-game plus-minus can be dangerous because those numbers can be prone to shooting variance. But this is part of a much larger trend with Ellis. Last season, the Kings were a +5.5 per 100 possessions with Ellis on the floor. Now, in 2024-25, they are nearly identical +5.6 per 100 with Ellis on the court.

Ellis' complementary skills make him the perfect player to pair with the Kings star core (De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan), and as a result, he deserves to be a part of the starting lineup long-term.