The Sacramento Kings will win the Tyrese Haliburton trade if this trend continues

Ever since the day they were traded for one another (all the way back in 2022), Tyrese Haliburton and Domantas Sabonis have been connected to one another. Which team won the trade: the one that got Haliburton (the Indiana Pacers) or the one that got Sabonis (the Sacramento Kings)?

After last season, many people were thinking it was the Pacers. Sabonis may have been the one to help the Kings end their infamous playoff drought, but Haliburton was able to guide the Pacers to the In-Season Tournament Finals and the Eastern Conference Finals. However, after the two player's recent starts, it seems like the Kings may be the ones walking away as winners.

A legendary start and a not so legendary slump

As many fans of the team are well aware, Sabonis has been off to a historically great start to the season.

Unfortunately, at least for the Pacers, Haliburton has been the exact opposite of historically great. Through five games, the All-NBA guard is averaging 14.6 PPG (down 5.5 PPG from last season's average) and 6.6 APG (down 4.3 APG). He's also at a 44% true shooting rate (5th percentile) and shooting 25% from downtown (7th percentile).

If Haliburton keeps performing like this and Sabonis continues playing at an All-NBA level, it doesn't matter what happened last season. In the long term, the Kings will be the team that is much better off.

The truth about the Haliburton/Sabonis trade

With this said, I think people are being way too reactionary about Haliburton's start to the 2024-25 season. Haliburton's track record as a dynamite offensive player is way too extensive to believe that he all of a sudden forgot how to shoot and facilitate the basketball. It is highly unlikely that he won't right the ship soon.

Meanwhile, it is not fair to believe that a player with Sabonis' offensive load (77th percentile usage in 2024-25) can maintain the efficiency (100th percentile in true shooting) that he has been operating at to start the season. Just like we will see some positive regression from Haliburton, we will see some negative regression from Sabonis.

While it isn't as clean of a response as most people want to hear, it is possible for both teams to emerge victorious from a trade. I believe that's what's happened here. Both Haliburton and Sabonis have put their teams in a significantly better place than they were in prior to the trade, and that's all you can ask for.

So, maybe we should stop trying to debate who won and who lost and just celebrate an all-around great deal.