As we learned in the movie Moneyball, the best teams are the ones that can stretch a dollar the furthest. Yes, the goal is to accumulate as much well-fitting talent as possible. But you also want to do it at a price that is at/below their market value.
To do this, front offices have come up with countless formulas for estimating a player's production value. In his book, “The Midrange Theory,” Seth Partnow posited one that involved multiplying a player's impact by the value of a win in a given season.
So, in a recent article mini-series, I used a variation of this technique to identify the best/worst contracts from the 2024-25 NBA season. Now, we are going to use the same process to look specifically at which Sacramento Kings' players had the worst contracts.
The Formula
In his book, the former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks discusses a formula that teams use to estimate a player’s monetary value. In its essence, the formula involves multiplying how many points a player is “worth” by the amount a win “costs” in a given season. Unfortunately, Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) — a major component in the formula — is no longer available. So, I've revised Partnow’s formula a bit.
The Website Dunks & Threes offers a metric called Estimated Wins (EW). As the name implies, this measure quite literally estimates how many wins a player earned for their team in a given season. Theoretically, by multiplying this number by the amount a win is worth in a given season (3.4 million in 2024-25), we can get an idea of how much they should be making next season. From there, we can compare the average annual value of the contract they received to the amount this exercise produced to see the disparity in how much they got paid versus what they are actually worth.
The 3 Worst Sacramento Kings Contracts From 2024-25
Now that all the background context has been established, here are the three worst Kings' contracts from the 2024-25 season:
Player Name | Production Value | 2024-25 Salary | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Zach LaVine | 23.1 Million | 44.5 Million | -21.4 Million |
Domantas Sabonis | 34 Million | 40.5 Million | -6.5 Million |
Trey Lyles | 2 Million | 8 Million | -6 Million |
For those wondering, the chart is sorted so that the player with the lowest difference (remember, the more negative, the lower) between their production value and 2024-25 salary is at the top, then the second, etc.
You likely noticed that the Kings' two best players also have the team's two worst contracts. Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis both produce a ton of value, but when you get a max-level contract, it is really hard to live up to that standard when you are not playing at an All-Star level (neither of them were named to the All-Star team this year).
Trey Lyles was the team's third-worst contract this year based on this formula. Lyles struggled offensively for most of the season. After shooting nearly 60% true shooting every year from 2022 to 2024, Lyles' efficiency fell to just 54.9%.
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out the one we put together for the three best Kings' contracts for the 2024-25 season.