Frequent readers of A Royal Pain know that I am extremely high on Keegan Murray. But just in case you didn't know, I think Murray has the juice to become one of the best role players in the league, and if that happens next year, it changes everything for the Sacramento Kings' short-term and long-term ceiling.
Keegan Murray is one of the most important players to keep tabs on in the NBA next year.
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) July 23, 2024
If he takes a leap and reaches that OG Anunoby/Mikal Bridges level, it takes the Kings from a frisky team to a legit contender in the Western Conference.
Well, CraftedNBA – one of the best NBA websites out there – has a tool that should make Kings fans even more excited about Murray's potential for next season.
On the website, there is a historical similarity application that allows people to compare a player's season to all player seasons dating back to 1978. The application generates the player seasons that are most similar to them offensively and the ones most similar to them defensively.
What Does The Application Have to Say About 2023-24 Keegan Murray?
When you run Murray's performance from last year through the tool, there is one particularly eye-popping name.
Looking at @craftedNBA's historical similarity app (incredible tool, by the way) for 23-24 Keegan Murray, and can't help but notice which season is the second-closest to him offensively.
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) August 2, 2024
Lauri Markkanen...the year before his breakout All-Star season 👀👀 pic.twitter.com/brhwmeblLp
According to this database, the season that is the second-most similar to the one Murray just had on offense is the one had by Lauri Markkanen in 2021-22. If you'll recall, that was the season before Markkanen's huge breakout campaign with the Utah Jazz in 2022-23 (the year he was named an All-Star). Could this be a harbinger that Murray is due for a massive leap next season?
Now, it is worth noting that this is just one piece of the analysis puzzle. There are variables that make it harder for Murray to reach Markkanen's offensive ceiling (although Murray has a higher defensive ceiling). For instance, Murray isn't as big, as good of a shooter, or as good of an interior play finisher as Markkanen.
Statistic | Murray | Markkanen |
|---|---|---|
Height | 6'8 | 7'0 |
3-Point % | 35.8% | 39.9% |
Dunks Per Game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Still, for the Kings to become a truly dangerous team, they don't need Murray to be an All-Star next year. They need him to be more like a top 50 player. So, even if he doesn't take the same leap that Markkanen took between 2021-22 and 2022-23, as long as it's a sizable one, they should be in a good spot.
As an aside, I also find it funny that Murray's season was so similar to not one but two players that the Kings have been rumored to be interested in trading for in Markkanen and Cameron Johnson. It just goes to show how sought-after great shooters (with size) are!