The truth about Keegan Murray's sophomore slump

Much has been made this offseason about how the Sacramento Kings view Keegan Murray as untradeable. At a glance, this may seem blasphemous, especially when you see that his 3-point percentage went from 41.1% in 2022-23 to 35.8% in 2023-24 (with no real change in shooting volume). That's kind of a big deal when you are supposed to be a "sharpshooter." Sounds a lot like Murray had himself a sophomore slump.

However, shooting is a very volatile aspect of the game, and great shooters have down seasons all the time (just look at Kevin Huerter). So, you can't really say that Murray regressed in Year Two just because his 3-point numbers were down.

In fact, when you dig deeper into the data, it suggests that Murray wasn't having a down year. Rather, he made a massive leap.

A Defensive Stopper

A great way to quantify Murray's growth last year is by looking at his Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) in his rookie and sophomore seasons. According to Dunks & Threes, Murray went from the 61st percentile in EPM (-0.7) in 2022-23 to the 86th percentile (+1.8) in 2023-24.

That change didn't come on offense. His OFF EPM stayed the exact same between the two years (+0.2, 75th percentile). Instead, it was his defense that took the major step forward, going from being in the 33rd percentile in DEF EPM (-0.9) in 2022-23 to the 90th percentile (+1.6) in 2023-24.

A big facet of defense Murray improved in his perimeter defense. According to the invaluable BBall Index, Murray went from an almost failing grade to a straight-A student in that department.

The tape also tells the same story, even performing well enough to gain recognition from the famed NBA University Twitter account.

While Murray's shooting numbers were down, he took a massive step forward as a defensive stopper. This all says nothing about the subtle improvements in Murray's ball skills and drive game.

If Murray's shooting regresses positively back to the mean (it likely will), he'll have a strong chance of being one of the best role players in the league (thanks to all the growth he experienced this year). Even if that doesn't happen, at the very least, it proves that last season wasn't a slump from Murray. It was a stepping stone – a stepping stone to a beautiful future.