Spurs vs. Kings NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, Feb. 22 (Bet the OVER)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs-Sacramento Kings matchup in the NBA on Thursday.

Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk.
Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk. / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The Sacramento Kings are holding on in the tight Western Conference playoff race, but they are currently the No. 8 seed heading into Thursday’s matchup with the San Antonio Spurs. 

This should be a fun matchup to kick off the second half of the NBA season, as the Spurs feature one of the NBA’s best young players in Victor Wembanyama. He will match up with Kings star big man Domantas Sabonis, who leads the NBA in triple-doubles this season. 

The Kings won the first meeting between these teams by nine points, and they’ve favored at home on Thursday. 

Can Sacramento get a much-needed win to put pressure on the top six teams in the West? 

Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this game on Thursday night: 

Spurs vs. Kings odds, spread and total

Spurs vs. Kings how to watch

  • Date: Thursday, Feb. 22
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Golden 1 Center
  • How to watch (TV): NBC Sports California, Bally Sports Southwest
  • Spurs record: 11-44
  • Kings record: 31-23

Spurs vs. Kings injury reports

Spurs injury report

  • Marcus Morris Sr. – out
  • Charles Bassey – out

Kings injury report

  • Sasha Vezenkov – out

Spurs vs. Kings key players to watch

San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama: There’s no doubt that Wembanyama is the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award this season, as he leads the NBA in blocks and leads the Spurs in points, rebounds, blocks, and steals per game. He should have his hands full on defense with star big man Domantas Sabonis. 

Sacramento Kings

Malik Monk: The Sixth Man of the Year favorite, Monk is averaging 15.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from beyond the arc. He entered the All-Star break on a heater, scoring 20 or more points in six of his last eight games. 

Spurs vs. Kings prediction and pick

While the Kings are favored to win this game, I think the best bet to make is on the total, as there is a massive trend with the Kings and the OVER at home

Sacramento has hit the OVER in 16 of the team’s 23 home games this season, and the main reason why is the team’s defense. 

The Kings are just 25th in the NBA in defensive rating at home, and the team plays at a fast pace (as do the Spurs), which leads to some high-scoring games. 

The total in this game is set at 242, but the first meeting between these teams finished with 249 combined points. The Spurs (No. 4 in pace) are going to push the ball, but they don’t defend at a high level, even with Wemby’s shot-blocking presence down low. 

San Antonio ranks 23rd in the league in defensive rating, and it may have a hard time slowing down a Kings offense that is elite at home (No. 9 ORTG at home). 

While the OVER is 27-27-1 in the Spurs’ games this season, I think Sacramento’s play style at home is too conducive to an OVER to pass up in this spot. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.