With the first day of free agency quickly approaching (June 30), I wanted to kick off a new series looking at how much potential players the Sacramento Kings could be targeting should be paid based on their past/future production.
In this series, I am going to look at three different methods (one on each slide) for estimating how much a player should be making next season. To some degree, all of these approaches are similar to the calculus front offices are doing when they are trying to ascertain the value of a particular player. If you haven't already, be sure to check out the first installment of this series on De'Anthony Melton or the second on Miles Bridges.
Today, we will be doing the same exercise for Kevon Looney. A couple of days ago, it was reported that the Warriors are probably going to cut ties with Looney in a cost-cutting move. That will make the three-time NBA Champion a free agent.
With Alex Len and JaVale McGee set to become free agents, the Kings are going to be in the market for a backup center. However, given their salary cap situation, they will likely only want to use their Bi-Annual Exception (BAE) or veteran minimum to fill that need.
This offseason, the BAE is worth roughly 4.7 million dollars (3.3% of the salary cap). Meanwhile, the veteran minimum for a player with nine years of service is a little over three million dollars (2.1%). Are either of those amounts enough to nab Looney? Let's look at three different methods for gauging player value based on production to find out.
(Sidebar #1: For those wondering, I have actually conducted this exercise for Malik Monk. That article can be found here.)
Method #1: A Revised Version of Seth Partnow’s Formula
In his book, “The Midrange Theory,” NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, Seth Partnow, discusses a formula that teams use to estimate a player’s monetary value.
In its essence, the formula involves multiplying how many points a player is “worth” by the amount a win “costs” in a given season. Unfortunately, Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) — a major component in the formula — is no longer available. So, I've revised Partnow’s formula a bit.
The website Dunks & Threes has a statistic called Estimated Wins (EW). Last season, Looney had 1.3 EWs. Next year, with the salary cap being estimated to be around 141 million dollars (per Spotrac), a single win will “cost” roughly 3.4 million dollars. Based on those two numbers, Looney should make about 4.4 million dollars next season (roughly 3.1% of the salary cap).
This number puts Looney right around the BAE/veteran minimum range.
Method #2: Cerebro Sports Global Search Tool
The website Cerebro Sports has a Global Search tool that allows you to compare players from different eras dating all the way back to 1980.
According to their database, there are 13 player seasons with similar statistical profiles to the one had by 2023-24 Looney. However, eight of those seasons occurred before 1990. Since it's difficult to find accurate salary data from that time, we'll eliminate those seasons from our analysis. We also won't look at Bam Adebayo's 2017-18 season because he was still on his rookie contract, and Looney is long past that.
With those added filters in mind, here are the four player seasons with similar statistical footprints and the percentage of the salary cap each of them was making during that season.
Player | Year | Age | % of Salary Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Bismack Biyombo | 2023-24 | 31 | ≈ 3.7% |
Antonio Davis | 2003-04 | 35 | ≈ 29.4% |
Fabrico Oberto | 2007-08 | 32 | ≈ 6.5% |
Zaza Pachulia | 2012-13 | 28 | ≈ 9.0% |
Looking at these four seasons, it seems like Biyombo's salary is the one that most accurately portrays Looney's current value. All these other players earned their paychecks at a time when this archetype (the not super skilled bruising big man) was more valuable. Also, if I'm being 100% honest, I have no idea how Antonio Davis was making 29.4% of the salary cap in 2003-04.
Anyway, 3.7% of the salary cap this season would be 5.2 million dollars. So, slightly above the BAE, but not by an amount that is insurmountable.
Method #3: Looking At Recent Precedent
Since the NBA and the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) recently agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement last April, the only offseason that compares to the financial landscape we’ll be dealing with this free agency period is last offseason. So, let’s focus on similar examples from the Summer of 2023.
As I mentioned earlier, Looney (who is entering his age 28 season) is more of an old-school big man. He isn't a vertical threat or a dribble handoff wizard. But he does give you offensive rebounding (96th percentile in 2023-24), rim protection (69th percentile in block rate), and championship pedigree (three titles).
As we noted on the last slide, Biyombo fits this description (minus the rings). DeAndre Jordan (a slower/older version of Looney) signed a one-year deal worth about 3.2 million dollars (2.4% of the salary cap). Tristian Thompson (another slower/older Looney) also signed that same deal.
The best comparison I could find is Mason Plumlee. He's a little older (34) and taller (6'11) than Looney. But like the soon-to-be former Warrior, he's a strong offensive rebounder, solid rim protector, and good passer for his position. Last offseason, Plumlee signed the same deal that Biyombo did (3.7% of the salary cap).
Those percentages would be in the 3.4 (2.4% of the cap) to 5.2 (3.7%) million dollar range this offseason. Again, right around that BAE/veteran minimum range.
The Bottom Line
All three of our methods indicate that Looney could be had for a number in the Kings' price range. This is especially true when you factor in that Looney will get three million in guaranteed money after the Warriors let him go. So, he will be less inclined to make sure he nets a huge payday.
Even after a down year, I would say Looney is an upgrade over Len/McGee as a backup center. And with Domantas Sabonis anchoring the starting spot, landing Looney would solidify the Kings center position heading into the 2024-25 season. Now, let's just see if both parties are interested in doing business.