With the first day of free agency quickly approaching (June 30), I wanted to kick off a new series looking at how much potential players the Sacramento Kings could be targeting should be paid based on their past/future production.
In this series, I am going to look at three different methods (one on each slide) for estimating how much a player should be making next season. To some degree, all of these approaches are similar to the calculus front offices are doing when they are trying to ascertain the value of a particular player.
The first player I want to do this exercise with is De'Anthony Melton. As I've mentioned before, Melton would be a great option for the Kings to target if they can't retain Malik Monk. To sign him, they would need to use their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (which is worth about 12.9 million dollars). But is that enough to land this two-way stud? Let's go through our three methods for projecting player value and find out.
Thinking about how whoever snags De'Anthony Melton in free agency this offseason will be a very happy camper.
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) June 5, 2024
(Sidebar #1: For those wondering, I have actually conducted this exercise for Malik Monk. That article can be found here.)
Method #1: A Revised Version of Seth Partnow’s Formula
In his book, “The Midrange Theory,” NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, Seth Partnow, discusses a formula that teams use to estimate a player’s monetary value.
In its essence, the formula involves multiplying how many points a player is “worth” by the amount a win “costs” in a given season. Unfortunately, Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) — a major component in the formula — is no longer available. So, I've revised Partnow’s formula a bit.
Melton's analysis is a little bit tricky because a nagging back injury has forced him to miss over half of the season and most of the playoffs. So, with this in mind, and the fact that Melton is still in his prime and has been able to stay pretty healthy in past seasons, we are going to use Melton's 2022-23 production for this method (and Method #2).
Anyway, the website Dunks & Threes has a statistic called Estimated Wins (EW). In 2022-23, Melton had 5.7 EWs. Next year, with the salary cap being estimated to be around 141 million dollars, a single win will “cost” roughly 3.4 million dollars. Based on those two numbers, Melton should make about 19.4 million dollars next season (roughly 13.8% of the salary cap).
Now, if we did that calculation for his 2023-24 season, Melton should make about 10.9 million dollars next season (roughly 7.7% of the salary cap).
Method #2: Cerebro Sports Global Search Tool
The website Cerebro Sports has a Global Search tool that allows you to compare players from different eras dating all the way back to 1980.
According to their database, there are six player seasons with similar statistical profiles to the one had by 2022-23 Melton. One of those player seasons is, ironically enough, 2020-21 Melton. So, we'll leave that player season out of this conversation.
Anyway, here are the five player seasons with similar statistical footprints and the percentage of the salary cap each of them was making during that season.
Player | Year | Age | % of Salary Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Trevor Ariza | 2017-18 | 32 | ≈ 7.5% |
Hersey Hawkins | 1997-98 | 31 | ≈ 11.5% |
Justin Holiday | 2020-21 | 31 | ≈ 5.2% |
Carlos Delfino | 2010-11 | 28 | ≈ 6.0% |
Jae Crowder | 2021-22 | 31 | ≈ 8.6% |
All five of the players above fall in the 5.2% to 11.5% of the salary cap range. In 2024-25, that would be 7.3 to 16.2 million dollars. So, right below/above the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level.
Another interesting thing to note is that all the players in the chart above are off-ball wings. This just goes to show that while Melton is the size of a guard (6'2), he functions more like a wing.
Method #3: Looking At Recent Precedent
Since the NBA and the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) recently agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement last April, the only offseason that compares to the financial landscape we’ll be dealing with this free agency period is last offseason. So, let’s focus on similar examples from the Summer of 2023.
One player that really reminds me of Melton, who signed a new contract last offseason, was Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo is a smaller combo guard (6'4) who plays bigger than he is (like Melton, he functions more like a wing), can shoot, attack closeouts, and wear multiple hats on defense.
Last offseason, DiVincenzo signed a four-year deal with an average annual value of 11.7 million dollars (roughly 8.6% of the salary cap). That would be 12.1 million dollars in 2024-25 (right around the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level).
Like Melton heading into this year, DiVincenzo's stock was down a little bit after a rough playoff run. In DiVincenzo's minutes, the Golden State Warriors had a -7.2 net rating per 100 possessions when DiVincenzo was on the floor during the 2023 Playoffs.
Ayo Dosunmu was seen as a diet version of Melton in the 2023 offseason (two-way combo guard). He signed a three-year contract with an average annual value of seven million dollars (roughly 5.1% of the salary cap). That would be 7.2 million dollars in 2024-25. Considering 2023 Dosunmu (38th percentile Estimated Plus-Minus in 2022-23) was viewed lower than 2024 Melton is (85th percentile EPM in 2023-24), it makes sense that he would earn more than that percentage of the salary cap.
The Bottom Line
While Method #1 and Hersey Hawkins' 1997-98 salary paint a picture of Melton receiving a few million dollars over the max for the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, most of the projections we came up with pointed to his production being slightly below that 12.9 million dollar mark.
That's great news because if the Kings can't keep Monk, they should certainly try using that Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level to add Melton to the crew.