(User note: In this article, we will strictly be discussing Miles Bridges' value from an on-court perspective. I do not in any way condone any of his past behaviors.)
With the first day of free agency quickly approaching (June 30), I wanted to kick off a new series looking at how much potential players the Sacramento Kings could be targeting should be paid based on their past/future production.
In this series, I am going to look at three different methods (one on each slide) for estimating how much a player should be making next season. To some degree, all of these approaches are similar to the calculus front offices are doing when they are trying to ascertain the value of a particular player. If you haven't already, be sure to check out the first installment of this series on De'Anthony Melton.
Today, we will be doing the same exercise for Miles Bridges. As I mentioned in a recent article, Bridges could be a strong option for the Kings to use their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (which is worth about 12.9 million dollars) on if they can't retain Malik Monk (one of the best combo guards in basketball).
Bridges gives the Kings some functional size that their current front court is sorely lacking. Plus, Sacramento can look to replace Monk's on-ball creation through the 2024 NBA Draft or via trades. But before we get into all that, we must first figure out just how much a player of Bridges' caliber is worth. Let's go through our three methods for projecting player value and find out.
(Sidebar #1: For those wondering, I have actually conducted this exercise for Malik Monk. That article can be found here.)
Method #1: A Revised Version of Seth Partnow’s Formula
In his book, “The Midrange Theory,” NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, Seth Partnow, discusses a formula that teams use to estimate a player’s monetary value.
In its essence, the formula involves multiplying how many points a player is “worth” by the amount a win “costs” in a given season. Unfortunately, Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) — a major component in the formula — is no longer available. So, I've revised Partnow’s formula a bit.
The website Dunks & Threes has a statistic called Estimated Wins (EW). Last season, Bridges had 4.4 EWs. Next year, with the salary cap being estimated to be around 141 million dollars (per Spotrac), a single win will “cost” roughly 3.4 million dollars. Based on those two numbers, Bridges should make about 15 million dollars next season (roughly 10.7% of the salary cap).
So, in a similar ballpark to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level. Remember, that 12.9 million dollar mark is the highest the Kings can offer this offseason to a free agent (also, they can only use it if Monk walks).
Method #2: Cerebro Sports Global Search Tool
The website Cerebro Sports has a Global Search tool that allows you to compare players from different eras dating all the way back to 1980.
According to their database, there are eight player seasons with similar statistical profiles to the one had by 2023-24 Bridges. One of those player seasons is, ironically enough, 2021-22 Bridges. So, we'll leave that player season out of this conversation. Meanwhile, 2019-20 Pascal Siakam (another player with a statically similar season to Bridges) was still on his rookie deal in 2019-20. Since Bridges is past his rookie contract days, Siakam's salary in that season isn't really relevant to this discussion.
With those two seasons eliminated, here are the six player seasons with similar statistical footprints and the percentage of the salary cap each of them was making during that season.
Player | Year | Age | % of Salary Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Tobias Harris | 2017-18 | 25 | ≈ 16.1% |
Tobias Harris | 2019-20 | 27 | ≈ 30% |
Jason Richardson | 2005-06 | 25 | ≈ 18% |
Clifford Robinson | 1994-95 | 28 | ≈ 12.1% |
Detlef Schrempf | 1994-95 | 32 | ≈ 31.3% |
Dirk Nowitzki | 2013-14 | 35 | ≈ 38.6% |
A couple of caveats to mention here: 1) we can disregard 2013-14 Dirk Nowitzki. That version of Nowitzki was in the twilight of his career, and he was being rewarded for taking pay cuts during his prime to help the Dallas Mavericks build a winner. 2) 2019-20 Harris is generally agreed to have been grossly overpaid. So, we won't want to use his salary figure as a point of comparison. 3) 1994-95 Detlef Schrempf was both an All-Star and Third Team All-NBA player when he was collecting 31.3% of his team's maximum salary cap. Considering Bridges has never been an All-Star, let alone an All-NBA player, it isn't wise to use Schrempf here, either.
That leaves us with 2017-18 Harris, 2005-06 Jason Richardson, and 1994-95 Clifford Robinson. Those three were between the 12.1% and 18% range. Based on next season's salary cap, that would be roughly between 17.1 million and 25.4 million, which is well over the NTML.
Method #3: Looking At Recent Precedent
Since the NBA and the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) recently agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement last April, the only offseason that compares to the financial landscape we’ll be dealing with this free agency period is last offseason. So, let’s focus on similar examples from the Summer of 2023.
Last offseason, a handful of starting-caliber power forwards who give you a blend of shooting, size, secondary rim protection, athleticism, and closeout attacking signed new contracts. Kyle Kuzma signed a contract paying him 16.5% of the 2023-24 salary cap. Rui Hachimura signed one paying him 12.5% of the cap. And P.J. Washington, Bridges' former teammate, signed one for 11.4% of the cap.
When adjusted for this season's salary cap, all these contracts are (again) above the NTML — roughly between 16.1 (11.4% of the cap) and 23.3 million dollars next year (16.5%).
The Bottom Line
All three of our methods resulted in a number that is well over what the Kings can offer Bridges with the NTML. On the surface, that does not bode well for Sacramento.
The saving grace here is that there are only six teams (outside of Bridges' current employer) with real cap space this summer, meaning only a handful of teams can offer Bridges more than the Kings can, and with names like Paul Goerge, James Harden, OG Anunoby, and DeMar DeRozan on the market, it is unlikely that teams will prioritize Bridges.
The Charlotte Hornets (the current employer) can easily offer him a deal with an average annual value that is more than twice as much as the NTML, as they retain his Full Bird Rights. Given how much money Bridges has lost from missing over a season of earnings, he may opt to stick with the Hornets (despite their lack of direction) to secure the best possible payday.
Overall, it seems improbable that the Kings will have the funds to land Bridges, but I guess we will just have to wait and see.