Predicting the contract of Kevon Looney in free agency

Method #3: Looking At Recent Precedent

Since the NBA and the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) recently agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement last April, the only offseason that compares to the financial landscape we’ll be dealing with this free agency period is last offseason. So, let’s focus on similar examples from the Summer of 2023.

As I mentioned earlier, Looney (who is entering his age 28 season) is more of an old-school big man. He isn't a vertical threat or a dribble handoff wizard. But he does give you offensive rebounding (96th percentile in 2023-24), rim protection (69th percentile in block rate), and championship pedigree (three titles).

As we noted on the last slide, Biyombo fits this description (minus the rings). DeAndre Jordan (a slower/older version of Looney) signed a one-year deal worth about 3.2 million dollars (2.4% of the salary cap). Tristian Thompson (another slower/older Looney) also signed that same deal.

The best comparison I could find is Mason Plumlee. He's a little older (34) and taller (6'11) than Looney. But like the soon-to-be former Warrior, he's a strong offensive rebounder, solid rim protector, and good passer for his position. Last offseason, Plumlee signed the same deal that Biyombo did (3.7% of the salary cap).

Those percentages would be in the 3.4 (2.4% of the cap) to 5.2 (3.7%) million dollar range this offseason. Again, right around that BAE/veteran minimum range.

The Bottom Line

All three of our methods indicate that Looney could be had for a number in the Kings' price range. This is especially true when you factor in that Looney will get three million in guaranteed money after the Warriors let him go. So, he will be less inclined to make sure he nets a huge payday.

Even after a down year, I would say Looney is an upgrade over Len/McGee as a backup center. And with Domantas Sabonis anchoring the starting spot, landing Looney would solidify the Kings center position heading into the 2024-25 season. Now, let's just see if both parties are interested in doing business.