Predicting the contract of Kevon Looney in free agency
By Mat Issa
Method #2: Cerebro Sports Global Search Tool
The website Cerebro Sports has a Global Search tool that allows you to compare players from different eras dating all the way back to 1980.
According to their database, there are 13 player seasons with similar statistical profiles to the one had by 2023-24 Looney. However, eight of those seasons occurred before 1990. Since it's difficult to find accurate salary data from that time, we'll eliminate those seasons from our analysis. We also won't look at Bam Adebayo's 2017-18 season because he was still on his rookie contract, and Looney is long past that.
With those added filters in mind, here are the four player seasons with similar statistical footprints and the percentage of the salary cap each of them was making during that season.
Player | Year | Age | % of Salary Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Bismack Biyombo | 2023-24 | 31 | ≈ 3.7% |
Antonio Davis | 2003-04 | 35 | ≈ 29.4% |
Fabrico Oberto | 2007-08 | 32 | ≈ 6.5% |
Zaza Pachulia | 2012-13 | 28 | ≈ 9.0% |
Looking at these four seasons, it seems like Biyombo's salary is the one that most accurately portrays Looney's current value. All these other players earned their paychecks at a time when this archetype (the not super skilled bruising big man) was more valuable. Also, if I'm being 100% honest, I have no idea how Antonio Davis was making 29.4% of the salary cap in 2003-04.
Anyway, 3.7% of the salary cap this season would be 5.2 million dollars. So, slightly above the BAE, but not by an amount that is insurmountable.