Pelicans vs. Kings NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, April 11 (Bet the UNDER)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Sacramento Kings-New Orleans Pelicans matchup on Thursday night.
Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox.
Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings have a ton on the line when they face off on TNT Thursday night, as the playoff chase is coming to a close in the NBA regular season.

Sacramento is looking to avoid falling into the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in tournament game, but a recent surge by the Golden State Warriors has put the Kings in a precarious position entering their final three games.

With Malik Monk out, the Kings are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have struggled a bit on offense. Meanwhile, New Orleans is looking to get the No. 6 seed in the West, but it has games against Sacramento, Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers to close out the 2023-24 season.

Does New Orleans – one of the better teams against the spread on the road this season – pull out a win at Golden 1 Center?

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Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for an intriguing Western Conference showdown: 

Pelicans vs. Kings odds, spread and total

Pelicans vs. Kings how to watch

  • Date: Thursday, April 11
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Golden 1 Center
  • How to watch (TV): TNT
  • Pelicans record: 47-32
  • Kings record: 45-34

Pelicans vs. Kings injury reports

Pelicans injury report

  • Brandon Ingram – out
  • Naji Marshall – questionable
  • Cody Zeller – available

Kings injury report

  • Jordan Ford – questionable
  • Kevin Huerter – out
  • Malik Monk – out 
  • Keegan Murray – questionable

Pelicans vs. Kings key players to watch

New Orleans Pelicans 

Zion Williamson: The former No. 1 overall pick has come up big in New Orleans’ last two wins, scoring 29 points against the Phoenix Suns and 22 against the Portland Trail Blazers. With Brandon Ingram out, Williamson has taken on a major role in the offense distributing the ball as well, averaging 4.8 assists per game since March 1. 

Sacramento Kings

De’Aaron Fox: Even though Fox had 33 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, it wasn’t enough to get the Kings a win. Sacramento needs that scoring from Fox in this game with Monk out, and the one-time All-Star is averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game since the Sixth Man of the Year favorite went down with an injury. 

Pelicans vs. Kings prediction and pick

There had been an interesting trend with the Kings at home this season, as they were an elite OVER team since their defense had struggled at home, but that has changed. 

The Kings have hit the UNDER in four of their last five games at home and 10 of their last 12 games overall. Without Monk, they are 4-2 to the UNDER in six games. 

Meanwhile, New Orleans has been an UNDER machine on the road (23-15-1), hitting it the fourth most of any team in the NBA. 

The Pelicans are a great defensive team, ranking fifth in the NBA this season in defensive rating. 

With playoff position on the line, I expect this game to have a little extra intensity, and I think the recent UNDER trends for the Kings will keep up. 

Pick: UNDER 217.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.