Kings vs. Timberwolves NBA expert prediction and odds for Friday, March 1 (Go with the under)

NBA betting preview, prediction and best bet for Kings-Timberwolves
Feb 28, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) attempts a shot as
Feb 28, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) attempts a shot as / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has done its job to keep pace atop the Western Conference, winning seven of its last eight games. The Timberwolves have won three straight games, all against sub-par opponents, and get a step up in class Friday when the Sacramento Kings come to town.

Minnesota has a one-game lead over the Thunder for the No. 1 spot in the west and a 1.5-game edge over the Nuggets. 

Sacramento has had a tough schedule, with eight of its last 10 games against teams with winning records. The Kings went 5-5 in that stretch and will look to keep some momentum on Friday at Target Center. Sacramento is just a half-game back of Dallas for the No. 7 seed in the west and just one game behind the Pelicans for No. 6. 

Here’s the betting breakdown of Friday’s tilt with a best bet. 

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Kings vs. Timberwolves odds, spread and total

Kings vs. Timberwolves how to watch

  • Date: Friday, March 1
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Target Center
  • How to watch (TV): Bally Sports
  • Kings record: 33-25 
  • Timberwolves record: 42-17

Kings vs. Timberwolves injury report

Sacramento Kings

  • De’Aaron Fox (knee): questionable

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Kyle Anderson (knee): doubtful
  • Anthony Edwards (ankle): questionable 

Kings vs. Timberwolves key players to watch


Keegan Murray: The former No. 4 overall pick is averaging 15.1 points per game but has paced the Kings’ offense in back-to-back losses. Murray had 28 in a loss to Miami, then put up 21 in a loss to Denver on Wednesday. He shot 19-of-31 from the field with nine 3-pointers in those two games and grabbed nine total rebounds. 


Naz Reid: An underrated piece of an elite frontcourt that includes Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, Reid, a 6-foot-9 center, has 41 points on 14-of-21 shooting over the last two games with 12 rebounds. Reid is shooting 48.7% from the field this season and has scored in double figures in eight of the last 10 games. 

Kings vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick

There’s an enormous injury concern for each team heading into this matchup. De’Aaron Fox missed Wednesday’s loss to Denver with a knee injury and Sacramento shot just 40% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc. 

For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards has been the team’s leading scorer in nine of the last 10 games and six straight and is averaging 26.6 points per game. 

With those players up in the air for Friday, you have to focus on the Minnesota defense. Sacramento is top-10 in the NBA in points in the paint this season and now goes up against Minnesota, which is No. 1 in the Western Conference in points allowed in the paint and No. 5 in second-chance points allowed. 

Minnesota is No. 1 in the NBA in defensive scoring, but gives up nearly four points or less inside the Target Center at just 102.4 points per game. If Fox can’t go, it’s bad news for the Kings’ offense no matter how good Domantas Sabonis (19.9 points, 13.2 rebounds per game) has been.

Without Fox this season, the Kings are 3-4 and have held under 105 points in five of those matchups. 

On the other side, Edwards is No. 8 in usage rate and plays such a big role in the Timberwolves’ offense that it’s hard to lay the points with his status unknown. You can hang your hat on the Minnesota defense, though, with a bet to the under. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.