Grade the trade pitch: Kings take Zach LaVine off the Bulls hands

Sacramento Kings

They Traded: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Davion Mitchell, Chris Duarte, two second round picks (2027 & 2028), and one 2025 second round pick via Portland Trail Blazers

They Received: Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso

Grade: B-

When the Phoenix Suns traded for Bradley Beal, they traded the equivalent of one first round pick, six second round picks, and two pick swaps. With Caruso in the mix (an elite role player on an expiring contract), you will probably want to add one more first round pick and one more seconder.

As we've said before, Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter (starting caliber players on good contracts) both command something similar to a first round pick on the open market. Davion Mitchell is still young and could have some untapped upside in a new setting. Those types of players are normally worth a couple of seconds in their own right. Chris Duarte doesn't have as much upside (he's a year and a half older than Mitchell), but he is still likely worth a second round asset.

Adding Caruso – one of the best perimeter defenders on the planet (99th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) – will provide a massive boost to a defense that finished 14th in defensive rating last season. On top of that, he offers spacing (87th percentile 3-point percentage and 63rd percentile in 3-point volume) and positional rim protection (85th percentile in block rate).

Since Caruso can play bigger than his 6'5 stature suggests, the Kings could probably get away with playing lineups of Fox/LaVine/Caruso/Murray/Sabonis. Overall, he'd be a seamless fit for this team. The one drawback is that he is only under contract for a year, and there is no guarantee that he will stay after that.

As for LaVine, recent memory has not been kind to him. However, he is a much better player than his 2023-24 numbers will tell you. In theory, he makes up for the on-ball creation you lose with Monk (91st percentile in percentage of field goals that were non-assisted) and the movement shooting (see clip below) that exits the stage with Huerter's departure.

That's all great (and so is the fact that they aren't parting ways with a first round pick in this trade), but there are three main worries that come with adding LaVine. First, he's expensive, injury-prone, and heavily reliant on his athleticism. Historically, those three ingredients don't tend to mix well.

Second, you lose some positional rim protection (which, as we've discussed in previous posts, is very important to this Kings' defense) by subbing out Monk and Huerter for LaVine. Last year, Monk and Huerter were in the 59th and 40th percentile in block rate, respectively. Meanwhile, LaVine was only in the 27th percentile. Keon Ellis will be able to make up for some of this. But realistically, how much can you play those two together (especially now that you also have Caruso)?

(Sidebar: That's another underrated drawback in all of this. By signing two players who spend a lot of time at shooting guard, the Kings are indirectly stunting the development of Ellis and Colby Jones.)

And third, by adding LaVine, the Kings would be tying up a ton of long-term money on him, De'Aaron Fox, and Domantas Sabonis. That's a huge investment to make on a trio that may not even boast a single top-20 player. I'm not saying you can't win with that triumvirate. I'm just saying that you'll have less margin for error when doing so and that there are probably other win-now moves that don't create this sort of conundrum.