If Lauri Markkanen is going to be traded this offseason, the Golden State Warriors appear to be the team that is most likely to pull the trigger on a deal for him.
From what we've heard, a Warriors/Utah Jazz deal for Markkanen would likely include one of Brandin Podziemski or Jonathan Kuminga and a boatload of picks/pick swaps (although, to this point, the Warriors have been hesitant to include either one of them in a deal).
The Sacramento Kings Have A Better Trade Piece Than Anything The Warriors Can Offer
However, while the Warriors may be the only team seriously connected to Markkanen right now, the Sacramento Kings were also once connected to the one-time All-Star and 2022-23 Most Improved Player (MIP) of the Year.
Unfortunately for the Warriors, the Kings, if they so please, tout a trade centerpiece that is more valuable than Podziemski, Kuminga, or any other player that Golden State can realistically offer. That headliner is soon-to-be third-year forward Keegan Murray.
Not only is Murray the better player right now (see chart below), but his player archetype is also much more valuable on title-contending teams. As a big forward (6'8) who can shoot the ball (career 38.4% shooter), defend (90th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus last year, per Dunks & Threes), and has some upside as a driver (59th percentile true shooting on drives, per Thinking Basketball), Murray has a chance to ascend into the elite role player category alongside guys like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.
Player | Estimated Plus-Minus (Percentile) |
|---|---|
Jonathan Kuminga | +1.0 (79th) |
Keegan Murray | +1.8 (86th) |
Brandin Podziemski | +0.1 (71st) |
Meanwhile, guys like Podziemski and Kuminga have some damaging flaws that limit their upside to a degree. Podziemski is a small guard who lacks high-end creation juice (34th percentile midrange efficiency), and Kuminga is a poor shooter (32.1% 3-point shooter last year) and uninspiring passer (14th percentile Passer Rating).
On top of that, the Kings can match most pick packages that the Warriors would try to offer the Jazz. The only thing hurting the Kings is the top 12 protected 2025 first round pick they owe the Atlanta Hawks (top 10 protected in 2026 if it doesn't convey). But even with that handicap, the Kings should be able to attach multiple first round picks and pick swaps to Murray in a trade for Markkanen.
In my opinion, a package of Murray plus picks and pick swaps is more valuable than one centered around Podziemski or Kuminga (although if both of them were included, that's a different story). Murray is so damn good that he should be untouchable in most trade negotiations, but Markkanen (with his rare blend of size, skill, and shooting) is an exception to the rule (at least in my book).
The good news for the Warriors is that there hasn't been any news about the Kings trying to acquire Markkanen since they executed a sign-and-trade for DeMar DeRozan. Besides, it seems the Kings also view Murray as immovable, and they don't share my leniency when it comes to Markkanen. So, the Warriors likely don't have to worry about getting into a bidding war with them.