3 ways to estimate how much De'Anthony Melton should be paid this offseason

Method #3: Looking At Recent Precedent

Since the NBA and the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) recently agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement last April, the only offseason that compares to the financial landscape we’ll be dealing with this free agency period is last offseason. So, let’s focus on similar examples from the Summer of 2023.

One player that really reminds me of Melton, who signed a new contract last offseason, was Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo is a smaller combo guard (6'4) who plays bigger than he is (like Melton, he functions more like a wing), can shoot, attack closeouts, and wear multiple hats on defense.

Last offseason, DiVincenzo signed a four-year deal with an average annual value of 11.7 million dollars (roughly 8.6% of the salary cap). That would be 12.1 million dollars in 2024-25 (right around the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level).

Like Melton heading into this year, DiVincenzo's stock was down a little bit after a rough playoff run. In DiVincenzo's minutes, the Golden State Warriors had a -7.2 net rating per 100 possessions when DiVincenzo was on the floor during the 2023 Playoffs.

Ayo Dosunmu was seen as a diet version of Melton in the 2023 offseason (two-way combo guard). He signed a three-year contract with an average annual value of seven million dollars (roughly 5.1% of the salary cap). That would be 7.2 million dollars in 2024-25. Considering 2023 Dosunmu (38th percentile Estimated Plus-Minus in 2022-23) was viewed lower than 2024 Melton is (85th percentile EPM in 2023-24), it makes sense that he would earn more than that percentage of the salary cap.

The Bottom Line

While Method #1 and Hersey Hawkins' 1997-98 salary paint a picture of Melton receiving a few million dollars over the max for the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, most of the projections we came up with pointed to his production being slightly below that 12.9 million dollar mark.

That's great news because if the Kings can't keep Monk, they should certainly try using that Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level to add Melton to the crew.