All offseason long, we talked about how the Sacramento Kings would only go as far as Keegan Murray could take them. That's because his blend of size, defense, and shooting gives him a ceiling to be one of the most complete role players in the association (think OG Anunoby level).
Up to this point, the Kings haven't gone very far (they are 11-13 and 12th in the Western Conference), and a big reason why is Murray not living up to expectations.
Now, to be fair, Murray continues to be sound on the defensive side of the ball. As it stands, he is in the 78th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEF EPM) and the 62nd percentile in block rate (per Dunks & Threes).
The issue has been his offense. To be a true two-way role player, you need to be a positive on both sides of the ball. After posting an Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +0.6 last season, Murray is down to a -0.8 to start 2024-25.
A big reason for Murray being a negative on offense has been his horrid start from downtown. After setting the rookie record for 3-pointers made in a season in 2022-23, Murray is only converting on 29.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc (10th percentile).
When you're a complimentary wing/forward, a big part of your offensive value derives from your ability to space the floor. Murray hasn't really been able to do that for the Kings this year. But fortunately, it looks like that percentage is trending upward.
The Legend of December Keegan Murray
Last week, we had a post regarding Murray's tendency to start out each of his first three seasons in the NBA very cold from downtown. In three seasons, Murray has never had a November where he shot better than 27% from three.
In his first two seasons, Murray has followed up his icy November with a scorching December – hitting 46.4% of his threes in December of 2022 and 44% of his threes last December.
Murray's first game of this December didn't start out this way (going 0-for-2 from three). But since then, the last three games have been very promising. In his most recent three games, Murray is shooting 7-for-17 from three (41.2%).
Date | Opponent | Threes Made/Threes Missed | 3-Point % |
|---|---|---|---|
12/01 | San Antonio Spurs | 0/2 | 0% |
12/03 | Houston Rockets | 3/5 | 60% |
12/05 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1/7 | 14.3% |
12/06 | San Antonio Spurs | 3/5 | 60% |
If Murray can continue that pace for the rest of the month, it will go a long way in helping the struggling Kings (24th in 3-point percentage) get back on track. Fingers crossed that history keeps repeating itself.