Every year, I run a study that tries to see which rookies have flashed the most potential in that season. The reason for this is that young players are inherently inconsistent. So, you want to see how high their highs are because the idea is that they will eventually play to their current peak levels on a regular basis.
To do this, I take the average of every rookie (who has played at least 25 games this year) in their ten best Game Score performances. For those wondering, Game Score is a statistic you can find on Basketball Reference. According to their website, Game Score is a metric “created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.).”
Devin Carter's highs aren't that high (yet)
Of course, the Kings have a lottery pick that has played at least 25 games in Devin Carter (28 games played). Unfortunately, he didn't fare too well in this analysis.
Of the 45 rookies who have played at least 25 games, Carter's ten best games only rank 39th in average Game Score. That is not what you want to see from your 13th overall pick, especially one who fans have been so excited about.
Now, there are a couple of caveats to this that make his presence so far down on the list easier to swallow. First, Game Score biases toward those who play lots of minutes and carry a large offensive role on their team (since the metric uses box score data). Carter has been a fringe rotation player all year long. So, he hasn't had as many chances as most of the guys ahead of him on this list.
On top of that, Carter has spent most of the year playing from behind, as he has been rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery for much of the year. He didn't even make his NBA debut until early January. Still, given his status as an older rookie (23 years old), you would like to see a little more production from him right out of the gate.
For those wondering, Isaac Jones also qualified for this list (33 games played). Jones ranked even lower than Carter. He was 41st of the 45 rookies on the list.