While the Sacramento Kings are deep into a race for a Western Conference playoff spot, there is a part of the discussion around them that must be dedicated to their place in the NBA Draft Lottery, given that they are still only the ninth seed in the West.
So, what would need to happen for the Kings to end up in the lottery? And if they do, how likely are they to end up with a top four pick?
How could Kings be in NBA Draft Lottery?
As we alluded to earlier, the Kings will likely be a play-in team this year (their second straight season in this position). If they manage to emerge from the tournament as winners, they will not be eligible for the lottery. But if they don't get the seventh or eighth seed, they will be entered into the lottery, and their odds will depend on their record compared to the other 13 teams who missed out on the postseason.
How likely is it that the Kings have a top 4 pick?
As of right now, the Kings would have the best record of the 14 teams that are currently outside of the top eight in their respective conferences. In that spot, the Kings would have a 0.5% chance at the first overall pick (per Tankathon), which will likely be the highly-coveted Duke forward Cooper Flagg.
Pick | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lottery Odds | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
In total, the Kings have a 2.4% chance of getting a top four pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Here's the kicker, though: if they want to keep that pick, they better hope the improbable becomes reality.
As you'll recall, the Kings traded a first round pick to the Atlanta Hawks in 2022 when they acquired the services of Kevin Huerter. The pick started out as a lottery-protected first in 2024, but since the Kings finished in the top 14, it became a top 12 protected first in 2025.
The way the lottery is set up, at their current spot, the Kings can only be the 14th overall pick (97.6% chance of happening) or be a top four pick. So, if they don't leapfrog to the top four, the Kings will give their pick to the Atlanta Hawks.
For the Kings to have a chance at keeping their pick without being a top four seed, they will need the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks to pass them in the standings. As it stands, the Mavericks are 1.5 games back from the Kings in the standings, while the Suns are three games behind.