After defeating the Phoenix Suns in their regular season finale, the Sacramento Kings have finished the 2024-25 NBA regular season 2024-25, and for the second straight season, they are headed to the Play-In Tournament.
As the ninth seed, the Kings will host the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the play-in (which will be played on Wednesday, April 16). If they win, they will travel on the road to play the loser of the game between the seventh and eighth seed. If they win that game, they will be rewarded with the eighth seed in the Western Conference (and a date with the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder).
While how far they will go in the play-in/playoffs remains uncertian, their place in the 2025 Draft Lottery is now solidified. So, what are their odds in the lottery this year? And how likely is it that they will keep their 2025 first round pick?
Sacramento Kings final lottery odds
As you'll recall, the Kings traded a first round pick to the Atlanta Hawks in 2022 when they acquired the services of Kevin Huerter. The pick started out as a lottery-protected first in 2024, but since the Kings finished in the top 14, it became a top 12 protected first in 2025.
The Kings finish the season with the 14th-worst record in the NBA. The way the lottery is set up, at their current spot, the Kings can only be the 14th overall pick or be a top four pick. So, if they don't leapfrog to the top four, the Kings will give their pick to the Atlanta Hawks.
Here are the Kings' current odds of getting each of the first four picks (all data provided by Tankathon):
Pick | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lottery Odds | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
In total, the Kings have a 97.6% chance of getting the 14th overall pick and a 2.4% chance of getting one of the top four spots. So, they have a 2.4% chance of keeping their 2025 first round pick.
It seems unlikely that the Kings will get to keep their first round pick this year, but not all hope should be lost. Remember, last season, the Hawks (ironically enough) were in a very similar situation. Despite only having a three percent chance of doing so, the Hawks were able to secure the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, which, of course, turned out to be Zaccharie Risacher.
If the Kings do climb into the top four and keep their first round pick, the pick will convey to a 2026 top 10 protected first round pick.