The Sacramento Kings better hope Domantas Sabonis is on board with whatever plan they map out this summer. Because if he’s not, it’s going to set them back…years.
Sure, prospective trade requests are part of an NBA team's life cycle. If Sabonis wants out, the Kings can theoretically net a bunch of assets for his services, and begin anew. But this presumes that a mega offer will be on the table. It might not be—and there's a big reason why.
To be sure, Sabonis doesn't seem on the verge of demanding out. Shortly after the Kings traded De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs, Sam Amick and Anthony Slate of The Athletic reported that he would “seek clarity” on the organization’s future this offseason. Concern about a pending trade request has since quieted. The 29-year-old has reiterated that he wants to stay in Sacramento.
This doesn't necessarily mean the Kings are out of the woods. They have named Doug Christie the permanent head coach, a move supported by the team's players, and their basketball operations are now being led by Scott Perry. Change is already afoot.
And with that change has come uncertainty. Sabonis acknowledged as much during his exit interview, at which time he unequivocally called for the Kings to find a point guard. That alone proves he's not okay with the status quo—with the idea of generating enough offensive captaincy among himself, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Malik Monk.
So really, the clock is ticking. The Kings must carve out a direction Sabonis endorses, otherwise they’ll find themselves in an unwinnable situation.
NBA insider offers chilling evaluation of Domantas Sabonis’ trade value
During a recent appearance on The Zach Lowe Show, John Hollinger of The Athletic offered insight into why a Sabonis trade request could be a disaster for the Kings. And it has little to do with his unhappiness forcing Sacramento into a different timeline. Here is what he said, as transcribed by SI.com’s Logan Struck:
“I do think you have to figure out if there's a market for Sabonis, and I think you're probably going to figure out pretty quickly that there's not. That renegotiate-and-extend was so overexuberant on him. I think that was one of their original sins. They have him on the book now, even this year, at $43.6 [million]. Sabonis is a valuable player. He's made All-Star teams. He's very durable. But I just don't know if he's a flavor that a lot of other front offices like, as far as actually building a team around.”
Even if you think Hollinger is underselling Sabonis’ impact, this is a pretty spot-on take. The new collective bargaining agreement makes it prohibitive to max out (non-rookie-scale) players who aren’t universally considered top 15 to 20 stars.
Sabonis, who’s owed $140.3 million over the next three years, is far from the only high-profile name to which this applies. The Boston Celtics will run into a similar issue if they ever try to move Jaylen Brown, along with the four years and $236.2 million left on his deal. Lauri Markkanen’s trade value with the Utah Jazz has effectively plummeted now that he’s on the books for another four years and $195.9 million. The Phoenix Suns would have trouble moving the two years and $110.8 million left on Bradley Beal’s deal, even if he didn’t have a no-trade clause.
Kings need Sabonis, because the path forward without him is bleak
This list goes on, so it’s not an insult to Sabonis. But as a center who doesn’t excel at the typical big-man stuff on defense, aside from rebounding, he's an even more specialized case. He forces you to flesh out the cast around him in a very specific way, to both accentuate his strengths, and insulate his weaknesses.
That would inherently narrow his market in the first place. Tack on his contract, and the field of suitors shrinks even further. Then, after that, you have to bake in that Sacramento won't be moving Sabonis from a position of strength. If they're shopping him, it's because he wants out. That gives any interested parties even more leverage to lowball their offers.
Stop and think about where a potential Sabonis trade request leaves the Kings. They’d not only be breaking up with their best, most valuable player, but they’d be doing so without getting the star-sized return required to springboard into a new direction.
Sacramento didn’t mine enough draft picks or prospects from the Fox trade to withstand a modest return for its remaining star. Without Sabonis, it would effectively be starting over from scratch.
So yeah, the stakes are high this offseason—sky high. The Kings need Sabonis to remain on board with their direction. Even if they don’t believe he’s the face of the brightest possible future, the fact is, they aren’t positioned to have much of a future without him.