On the season, De'Aaron Fox is averaging 26.7 PPG, 6.2 APG, 4.9 RPG, and 1.6 SPG on 58% true shooting. By all accounts, he is the team's best player. So, when you hear things like he may no longer want to be in Sacramento, you do everything you can to change his mind, right?
Well, the Kings have their last three games without Fox in the lineup, including an impressive victory over the defending champion Boston Celtics (one that put them in some rarified air). On top of that, according to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings are 6.1 points worse per 100 possessions when Fox is on the floor compared to when he's on the bench (23rd percentile).
These numbers beg the question: why not just trade Fox if he may be unhappy here? It seems like you are better off without him anyway.
Adding some context to the data
Listen, data is very important to sports analysis. That's because the numbers, unlike the human eye, see every possession. However, interpreting data without factoring in additional context can lead to some misleading results.
For starters, on-off data can only tell you how good a player is performing in their specific team context. For instance, if you are a starting point guard on a team with a very bad backup point guard, then your on-off numbers will probably look really good.
In the case of Fox, the Kings have two other players with his skillset on their roster in Malik Monk and DeMar DeRozan. All three of those players are capable of creating offense for themselves and their teammates. Since the Kings have a pair of "replacements" for Fox, the team doesn't really "miss" him when he's not on the floor.
Okay, so the next question is: why don't Monk and DeRozan have negative on-off numbers?
Of the three players, Fox has the worst opponent shooting luck. Look at the difference in how opponents are shooting on threes in their respective minutes (per Cleaning the Glass).
Player Name | Opponent 3-Point % (Percentile) |
|---|---|
DeMar DeRozan | 38.8% (14th percentile) |
De'Aaron Fox | 39.2% (11th percentile) |
Malik Monk | 37.8% (26th percentile) |
Remember, opponent 3-point shooting is largely out of a player's control. So, it seems like Fox is suffering from bad luck more than anything.
If you don't buy this luck/roster argument, look at Fox's on-off from last season. In 2023-24, the Kings were 9.4 points better per 100 when he was on the floor (91st percentile). Has Fox really gotten that much worse in a single season?
I'm not a betting man, but I'm willing to wager a good deal of money that the answer to that question is a loud "no."