After missing out on an All-Star selection and a playoff berth in 2023-24, Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis has come into the 2024-25 regular season in search of vengeance. In his first four games, he was in rarified air in terms of points, rebounds, assists, and efficiency (and when we say "rarified," we mean never done before).
According to @Stathead, Domantas Sabonis is the first player in NBA history to start his first four games averaging at least 24 PPG/11 RPG/5 APG on 75% true shooting.
— Mat Issa (@matissa15) October 31, 2024
The only players to ever do it for any four game stretch are him, Nikola Jokic, Charles Barkley, and Giannis. pic.twitter.com/oe6wzIXjKn
Sabonis has been so good to start the year that some metrics have him in the hunt for the greatest individual achievement an NBA player can earn in the regular season.
Basketball Reference has Domantas Sabonis in the MVP race
For those who are unaware (or just need a refresher), Basketball Reference has an MVP Award Tracker metric. According to their website, "The NBA MVP Award Tracker ranks candidates based on a model built using previous voting results. Players must have played in at least 70% of the league-wide average for team games to qualify. Players who are not currently on pace to play in 65 games are in italics. Players who cannot reach 65 games played are excluded."
As of Saturday, November 2, Sabonis ranks seventh in the 2024-25 MVP race based on this award. The tracker currently gives him a 1.9% of taking home the award. For reference, here are the other names in the top 10.
Player Name | MVP Probability |
|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 48.6% |
Jayson Tatum | 16.7% |
Nikola Jokic | 10.9% |
Jarrett Allen | 6.7% |
Chet Holmgren | 5.7% |
Anthony Davis | 4.7% |
Domantas Sabonis | 1.9% |
Devin Booker | 1.7% |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 1.6% |
Evan Mobley | 1.5% |
It goes without saying that we are only a week and a half into the NBA season, and as a result, metrics like this produce some wonky results. For instance, Jarrett Allen is a great big, but he probably shouldn't have higher MVP chances than someone like Anthony Davis.
However, in Sabonis' case, his place on this list may not be as flukey. In fact, last season, Sabonis finished eighth in MVP voting, and the year before that (2022-23), he finished seventh. Simply put, Sabonis is no stranger to having his name show up on this list.
It is very unlikely that Sabonis will seriously challenge for MVP this year, but if he keeps playing this way, he will likely have another top 10 finish in MVP voting. Very few players in league history have ever finished in the top 10 in this category once, let alone three times. So, this would be a heck of an accomplishment for the All-NBA center.
Sabonis' father, Arvydas Sabonis, has never finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. The closest he's come was in 1998-99 when he finished 13th in the award race. If Sabonis could add a third one of these finishes to his resume, it would give him major bragging rights over his old man (whom he deeply admires).