Could The Sacramento Kings Get The #1 Overall Pick?

The Sacramento Kings could use a stroke of luck for an event that they struggle in, so what are their odds of obtaining a top pick?

While the remainder of the 2019-’20 NBA season in limbo, it becomes increasingly likely that the regular season will not continue. This means that the Draft Lottery odds are essentially set, and for the Sacramento Kings that means a high likelihood of having a pick in the late lottery.

The Kings finished with a 28-36 record, tied with the Pelicans for 12th and a fraction of a percentage point ahead of the Trail Blazers in the lottery standings. There are scenarios, however, in which Sacramento could move up to be able to select one of the prizes of the 2020 NBA Draft class.

Thanks to our friends over at Tankathon.com, we are able to see the odds for each lottery team as it pertains to their potential lottery position. As it stands, the Kings have a, 86.1 percent chance of obtaining the 12th overall pick. If you are doing any draft projections or scouting, the twelfth spot is your go-to.

But what about that remaining 13.9 percent?

Well, 7.7 of it works against the Kings. They could fall back a spot to the 13th slot (7.6 percent) or even drop to the final pick of the lottery at 14 (0.1 percent).

There is the possibility of good news, however. The way that the NBA Draft Lottery is set up, teams are only eligible for a handful of picks. For example, the team with the best odds can’t pick worse than fifth. The team with the tenth-best odds can not land at picks 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. Just click this link and look at the chart, I can’t explain it.

So where does that final 6.1 percent take you? To the promised land, baby.

The Kings have a 6.1 percent chance of landing a top-4 pick and having a shot at one of this year’s prized prospects. In this scenario, the highest likelihood would be to acquire the 4th overall selection at 1.8 percent, and the odds decline from there (1.6 percent for 3rd, 1.4 percent for 2nd).

And then there is the big kahuna. What if, by the grace of the Basketball Gods, the Sacramento Kings luck in to that 1.3 percent and obtain the top pick? It would be a jolt of luck for a team that badly needed a redo based on their recent draft decisions.

After many years of terrible lottery luck (Blake Griffin, anyone?) and botched draft picks, the Kings have actually gotten a couple of strokes of luck in recent lottery past. They finished with the 8th best odds in 2017 and moved up to the third pick (3.9 percent chance). In 2018, they moved up  from 7th to 2nd (6%). So the possibility is out there, and nothing should be counted out.

Would the Kings make the correct selection should they ever get so lucky? We can only hope they’ve learned their lesson(s).

For continuing Kings coverage, be sure to stay tuned to A Royal Pain