A Royal Pain
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Sacramento Kings: 3 Three Predictions for Marvin Bagley

By Ryan Ritter

MUMBAI, INDIA - OCTOBER 5: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings talks with media at the press conference after the game against the Indiana Pacers on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)
MUMBAI, INDIA - OCTOBER 5: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings talks with media at the press conference after the game against the Indiana Pacers on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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MUMBAI, INDIA – OCTOBER 5: JaKarr Sampson #14 of the Indiana Pacers plays defense against Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
MUMBAI, INDIA – OCTOBER 5: JaKarr Sampson #14 of the Indiana Pacers plays defense against Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Defense and strength will continue to be an issue for Marvin

While Bagley looks poised to elevate his offensive game this season, two games into the preseason, it does appear as if defensive efficiency will continue to be an issue this year.

It’s not as if Bagley lacks motor, unlike past Sacramento big men. He puts the effort in on both ends of the court. However, there’s likely a reason the Kings are slotting him at the four instead of at center. While he has developed a nice shot-blocking sense, without a major upgrade in strength, Bagley is going to continue to get bullied in the paint by other power forwards on defense.

Last season, Bagley allowed an overall defensive field goal percentage of 46.6%. This includes a 56.8% dFG from less than 10 feet and a woeful 60.2% dFG from less than six feet. Unfortunately, off the two games in India, it doesn’t look like these issues are trending upwards.

With the caveat that the team as a whole was a defensive sieve in both games played this week, Bagley was continuously bullied on offense by Domantas Sabonis. He ended up with a defensive rating of 127.7 in the first game and a slightly less horrendous 117.9 in the India finale. Again, just preseason, and two games played on the other end of the globe, so all kinds of weird time-zone things are going on there. But it’s worrisome.

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This can all be mitigated by playing Bagley alongside Dedmon, Richaun Holmes or Harry Giles, who can help on defense from 10 feet and under, leaving Bagley free to defend around the perimeter where he’s a little more effective. Ultimately, however, the physical assets that make him so thrilling on offense may end up making him a liability on the other end of the floor.

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