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Sacramento Kings: 3 Three Predictions for Marvin Bagley

By Ryan Ritter

MUMBAI, INDIA - OCTOBER 5: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings talks with media at the press conference after the game against the Indiana Pacers on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)
MUMBAI, INDIA - OCTOBER 5: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings talks with media at the press conference after the game against the Indiana Pacers on October 5, 2019 at NSCI Dome in Mumbai, India. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 19: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings dunks the ball against the Detroit Pistons on January 19, 2019 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 19: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings dunks the ball against the Detroit Pistons on January 19, 2019 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Marvin will average a double-double this year

I’d go so far as to say he could very well average 20 and 10 next season. It seems like a tall order for a second-year player who didn’t even start his rookie year. But the truth is he wasn’t that far away once you consider he only played a little over half of each game on average last season.

Bagley’s line for the 2018-19 season was 14.9/7.6 in 25.3 minutes a game. That line, when prorated out into a per-36 prism, translates into a 21.2 ppg/10.8 rpg line. The obvious caveat is that the per-36 stat is very imperfect. However, given that Bagley is the presumed starter this season, it’s not that difficult to see his game translate well under new coach Luke Walton‘s fast-paced system.

The key will be a focus on crashing the offensive glass and using his springy second jump (still perhaps his most important tool) to grab misses and pull up for dunks. This is already a primary tool in his offensive arsenal: last season, Bagley snagged 162 offensive rebounds, good for 2.6 a game. He’s capable of even doubling that total. That would bring him up to about 3.7 a game (presuming he plays all 82).

Bagley has the tools and the opportunity to be one of the only second-year players to average a double-double. So, why not? Let’s go for it.

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