A Royal Pain
Fansided

Sacramento Kings: Will Marvin Bagley III make the All-Rookie First Team?

By Jonathan Roberts

SACRAMENTO, CA - FEBRUARY 10: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings defends Deandre Ayton #22 fo the Phoenix Suns on February 10, 2019 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - FEBRUARY 10: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Sacramento Kings defends Deandre Ayton #22 fo the Phoenix Suns on February 10, 2019 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Marvin Bagley III had a strong rookie season for the Sacramento Kings, but was hampered by injuries at times. Will he still be able to make the All-Rookie First Team?

Marvin Bagley III has an incredibly bright future with the Sacramento Kings, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to make the All-Rookie First Team, as he’s got fierce competition for one of the three spots reserved for big men.

Fighting with Bagley for one of those three First-Team slots will be DeAndre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Mitchell Robinson and Wendell Carter Jr. Rookie sensation Luka Doncic is listed as a guard on NBA.com and Basketball Reference, so we’ll pencil him and Trae Young into the two guard spots.

As for the others, where does Bagley stand among them? Will the Sacramento Kings have their third All-Rookie First Team member since 2010, joining DeMarcus Cousins (2010-11) and Buddy Hield (2016-17)? Or will he be the fourth (Isaiah Thomas, 2011-12, Willie Cauley-Stein, 2015-16 and Bogdan Bogdanovic, 2017-18) to be relegated to the Second Team?

light. Must Read. Marvin Bagley’s made the Kings forget about Luka Doncic

That, like most things in life, is a complicated question — and one that wholly depends on what a voted values more. Wendell Carter Jr. has been solid for the Chicago Bulls defensively, and is fourth among all rookies in blocks (1.3) and rebounds (7.0), and is fifth among all rookies in efficiency (14.7), but he only appeared in 44 games and averaged just 25.2 minutes per night, fewer than Bagley, Jackson Jr. and Ayton. While he had a solid season deserving of recognition, that recognition will likely have to come as an All-Rookie Second Team bid, as he’ll likely be left off the First Team.

That leaves four players for three spots, so who’s the odd-man out? Well, it depends. If you value numbers, then Ayton is a lock. In fact, Ayton is likely a lock regardless, as he finished second among all rookies in win shares and player efficiency rating, all while posting 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Ayton advanced numbers are too great, but he played his rookie season on a 19-win Phoenix Suns team — hard to do much with that.

The other lock has to be New York’s Mitchell Robinson. Robinson wasn’t lighting up the stat sheet, just 7.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists — he did, however, average 2.4 blocks — but he was an elite player for the bottom-feeding Knicks. Not only did he lead all rookies in win shares (6.1) and player efficiency rating (22.0), but he also led all rookies in player impact plus-minus (plus-2.26). Robinson was the rookie to have a PIPM north of plus-2.0 and was one of just eight rookies to post a positive PIPM overall.

So now there’s two players for one spot — let’s put them side-by-side.

"Bagley: 14.9 points (5th among rookies), 7.6 rebounds (3rd), 1.0 assists (29th), 0.5 steals (23rd), 1.0 blocks (6th), minus-3.2 net rating (16th), 18.9 PER (4th), minus-2.11 PIPM (89th)Jackson Jr: 13.8 (6th), 4.7 rebounds (8th), 1.1 assists (26th), 0.9 steals (7th), 1.7 blocks (2nd), minus-1.9 net rating (11th), 16.4 PER (6th), minus-0.34 PIPM (40th)"

It’s a right race any way you slice it, games played doesn’t provide any major boost to either candidate as Bagley (62) has just four more games played than Jackson Jr. (58). One thing to note, however, is the end of Bagley’s season was far superior to the final months of JJJ’s season, which could give Bagley a boost.

Through 16 games in January (his last full month), JJJ averaged 14.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists and 1.2 blocks. Over 10 March games (Bagley’s final full month), Bagley averaged 18.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 0.9 blocks.

Jackson Jr.’s campaign was cut short due to injury, and while Bagley dealt with his own injuries, he was able to close the season in a strong way, which should give him an edge over JJJ for the final spot on the All-Rookie First Team.

Next. Sacramento Kings have hired Luke Walton as Head Coach. dark

The All-Rookie teams were announced in late-May last year, and while no concrete date has been set by the NBA yet, it’s reasonable to assume it’ll fall around that same time. Will Bagley give the Sacramento Kings their third All-Rookie First Team member since 2010? Or will he fall to the Second Team? There’s only one way to find out — and that’s by waiting.

Home/Kings News