Does picking in the top five draft selections guarantee you an all-star? Unless you are picking number one or number three overall, the odds are not that high.
While getting a top-5 draft pick is the goal of any rebuilding franchise. It doesn’t necessarily mean you’re getting an all-star talent with that selection. Here’s a breakdown of each draft position one through five and the chances of selecting an all-star.
With the First Pick, Philadelphia 76ers Select:
History shows that number one overall picks (unsurprisingly) have the highest all-star percentage, and it is not even close. A whopping 77% of players selected first overall from 1980-2015 went on to become all-stars. This group includes the likes of Shaq, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, and plenty of other all time greats. Of course, there’s never a sure thing in the NBA, even at number one overall. I am looking at you, Anthony Bennet and Greg Oden. Still, a 77% success rate is as good as you’ll find anywhere, which bodes well for the likely first overall pick, Markelle Fultz.
With the Second Pick, The Los Angeles Lakers Select:
While it’s getting increasingly difficult to predict who the Lakers pick here, history hasn’t been so kind on number two picks. Only 12 of the 35 draft picks in the same time frame have gone on to become all-star caliber players (35%). However, when a second overall draft pick is a hit, he’s a homerun. Kevin Durant, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, and Gary Payton were all number two picks. Whether the Lakers select Lonzo Ball or go in a different direction, they’ll be looking to add to that small number of 12 successful picks.
With the Third Pick, The Boston Celtics Select:
The one is finicky. Nobody knows whether or not Boston will retain this selection, and it is almost as hard to predict who they would choose if they do. While the Celtics have plenty of choices at number three, this is the team that is looking to land a superstar caliber player. Do not bet on them staying at third overall though. Boston acquired two first rounders in the trade of the number one overall pick and will likely deal some to land a superstar player. Nevertheless, the success rate of number three picks is right under 50%. It’ll be interesting to see who’s drafted at third overall regardless of the team due to the coin flip nature of success at this position.
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At Fourth Overall, the Phoenix Suns Select:
While the Suns are projected in multiple mock drafts to take small forward Josh Jackson at number four, he might not be so eager to be selected there. Only a paltry 29% of fourth overall picks went on to become all-stars. While likely Hall-of-Famers Chris Paul and Chris Bosh are among those, that is only a success rate of 10 out of 35 picks.
The Suns need to nail this pick though, more so than any other team. Phoenix lacks a true two-way superstar. While Devin Booker is a stud, his defense is atrocious and holds the team back. Regardless of who they choose though, we are a safe distance away from seeing the Suns compete again.
Next: Mock Draft: Best fit for each lottery team
With the 5th Overall Pick, the Sacramento Kings Select (fingers crossed it is De’Aaron Fox):
11. That’s the number of players went on to be all-stars from this position (31%). While the number is small, this draft position seems to breed Hall-of-Fame caliber players. Dwyane Wade, Scottie Pippen, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Vince Carter were all number five picks. As encouraging as that is, the Kings have a less than stellar draft record. On the bright side though, the Kings seem inclined to take a point guard with their first pick, which is badly needed. While it’s hard to trust this front office with anything, it’s possible Sacramento strike gold here. In the words of former fifth overall pick Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.
*All stats from NBA.com.