Prediction: Rudy Gay Averages 20 Points Per Game This Season

The Sacramento Kings’ Rudy Gay struggled on offense last season, but this year he returns to scoring 20 points per game.  This article examines the reasons behind that prediction.

Here is what I knew about Rudy Gay’s season last year.  First, he averaged 17.2 points and 1.7 assists per game both numbers that were well below his career averages.  Second, Rajon Rondo controlling the ball and distributing played some factor in that production.

Then, I stumble across this article from the Sacramento Bee’s Jason Jones.  Please give it a read if you have not already because it has many great quotes from Mister Gay.  It, also, gave me more optimism he would return to his 20 points per game average.  Clearly, the role and the fit last year was not ideal.  From his comments, Gay seems more content this year with Coach Joerger and his new role.

Let us now further examine the Rondo Effect from last season and why Rudy Gay should return to his 20 points a night rhythm.

The Rondo Effect

From a statistical perspective, it is easy to see why Gay’s scoring decreased last season.  His shot attempts from both the field and foul line decreased to the worst of his career since 2008.  Gay’s free throw percentage dropped as well.  His usage rate dropped from 27.0% to 22.4% in one season.  He just was not getting the attempts to sustain his scoring average.

Below is a tweet from Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee featuring Rudy Gay talking about his preseason and the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on October 13th.

As you can see, Gay describes his better all-around game being attributed to touching the ball more.  It seems to me that Rondo dominating the ball had an effect on Rudy’s mentality and game.  He was not looking to go out, get the ball in his hands, and score.  I think that changes this season and is the first reason why he returns to averaging 20 points per game.

New Offense

I have written about the new offense extensively this preseason.  The most recent piece can be found here and it discusses the offense taking time and takes a look into some of the plays I expect the Kings to run this season.

I believe they want the ball to flow more and I think you can already see Coach Joerger’s emphasis is going to be to put the ball in the hands of his best players.  He did that in Memphis with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley.  I believe he will do that here with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.  Gay just turned 30 and is proven to be the Kings second best player and scorer.  Given the emphasis to put the ball in the hands of their top players, I see this as another feather in the cap of Gay returning to a 20 point per game average.

History

Rudy Gay has a history of averaging 20 points per game.  He averaged 21.1 points per game in his first full season in Sacramento.  Gay averaged 20.0 points per game the previous season with both Sacramento and Toronto combined.  He averaged 19.5 points per game or more in three different seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies and they played at one of the league’s slowest paces during those seasons.  All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

Rudy Gay, also, has a history with Coach Dave Joerger.   Coach Joerger was an assistant for the Grizzlies during five and a half seasons Gay played there.  That should give them a good familiarity with one another.  It gives Gay the ability to grasp the offense quicker than some other players too.

Given, Rudy Gay’s history of producing big points per game numbers and his familiarity with Coach Joerger only adds evidence to Gay returning to scoring 20 points per game.

Summary

Rudy Gay made negative headlines this offseason, but can you blame him?  From his perspective, he was coming off perhaps the worse statistical season of his career and did not seem to be the happiest camper in the world.  I think that changes this season.

Given the hiring of Coach Joerger, I believe he puts the ball in Rudy Gay’s hands and lets him return to his scoring ways.  I suspect that the Kings need Gay to average 20 points per game to be successful and I believe he delivers this season.

Here is to hoping that after a great season, Gay reconsiders and stays in Sacramento.  I think he is an underrated player who has the ability to be a great compliment to DeMarcus Cousins in creating a great one-two scoring punch.

Next: Recap: Sacramento Kings Defeat The Washington Wizards In Rupp Arena

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