A Royal Pain
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Opinion: Is Arron Afflalo Worth the Dollars?

By Tyler Watts

Dec 7, 2015; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) works the ball around Dallas Mavericks guard Deron Williams (8) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Dallas Mavericks won 104-97. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 7, 2015; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) works the ball around Dallas Mavericks guard Deron Williams (8) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Dallas Mavericks won 104-97. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 20, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Knicks defeated the Timberwolves 103-95. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Knicks guard Arron Afflalo (4) against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Knicks defeated the Timberwolves 103-95. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /

Advanced Metrics

Let us take a deep dive into Afflalo’s box score plus/minus metric to see how he rated last season.  Last season, Afflalo produced negative 0.6 offensive and negative 1.8 defensive box score plus/minus.  That resulted in value over replacement player (VORP) of negative 0.2.

For his career, Afflalo averages a positive 0.5 offensive box score plus/minus and a negative 1.3 defensive box score plus/minus.  His career VORP (calculated by adding up the VORP from each of his 9 NBA seasons) is positive 5.8.

Let us examine win shares to give us an alternative look at last season’s play from Mister Afflalo.  He earned offensive win shares of positive 1.8 and defensive win shares of positive 0.9.  His win shares per 48 minutes metric rated at 0.055, well below league average of 0.100.

For his career, Afflalo has produced cumulative offensive win shares of positive 22.8 and cumulative defensive win shares of 9.1.  His career win shares per 48 minutes rates at 0.083.  All stats and advanced metrics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

The advanced metrics are not kind to Arron Afflalo.  He rates as a better offensive player than defensive player.  He rated both below league average and below replacement level last season for the New York Knicks.  For his career, he rates as a below league average player, but more valuable than a replacement player.  Here is to hoping he can play better for the Kings this season and get back in the good graces of the advanced metrics.

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