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NBA Draft Lottery 2017: Final odds

By Tyler Watts

Mar 24, 2017; Memphis, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard De'Aaron Fox (0) dribbles the ball against UCLA Bruins guard Aaron Holiday (3) in the second half during the semifinals of the South Regional of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 24, 2017; Memphis, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard De'Aaron Fox (0) dribbles the ball against UCLA Bruins guard Aaron Holiday (3) in the second half during the semifinals of the South Regional of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2017 NBA Draft lottery takes place on May 16.  Today, we will take a look at the final odds for the lottery and discuss the scenarios that could play out.

It is hard to understate the importance of today to the Sacramento Kings franchise.  They could have two top ten selections in the 2017 NBA Draft or none by about 9 pm Eastern tonight.  The Kings have their pick plus a selection they netted in the DeMarcus Cousins trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.  There are caveats to both picks, though.

First, let us take a look at the odds for tonight’s lottery.  Remember the top three selections are selected in this evening’s lottery.  Then, we will examine the scenarios that could cause picks to change hands tonight.  Let us roll right into it.

Final Lottery Odds

Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)

Odds of #1 Pick: 25.0%, Odds of Top 2: 46.5%, Odds of Top 3: 64.3%

Phoenix Suns

Odds of #1 Pick: 19.9%, Odds of Top 2: 38.7%, Odds of Top 3: 55.8%

Los Angeles Lakers

Odds of #1 Pick: 15.6%, Odds of Top 2: 31.3%, Odds of Top 3: 46.9%

Philadelphia 76ers

Odds of #1 Pick: 11.9%, Odds of Top 2: 24.5%, Odds of Top 3: 37.8%

Orlando Magic

Odds of #1 Pick: 8.8%, Odds of Top 2: 18.5%, Odds of Top 3: 29.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves

Odds of #1 Pick: 5.3%, Odds of Top 2: 11.3%, Odds of Top 3: 18.3%

New York Knicks

Odds of #1 Pick: 5.3%, Odds of Top 2: 11.3%, Odds of Top 3: 18.3%

Sacramento Kings

Odds of #1 Pick: 0.0%, Odds of Top 2: 6.1%, Odds of Top 3: 9.9%

Dallas Mavericks

Odds of #1 Pick: 1.7%, Odds of Top 2: 3.7%, Odds of Top 3: 6.1%

New Orleans Pelicans

Odds of #1 Pick: 1.1%, Odds of Top 2: 2.4%, Odds of Top 3: 4.0%

Charlotte Hornets

Odds of #1 Pick: 0.8%, Odds of Top 2: 1.7%, Odds of Top 3: 2.9%

Detroit Pistons

Odds of #1 Pick: 0.7%, Odds of Top 2: 1.5%, Odds of Top 3: 2.5%

Denver Nuggets

Odds of #1 Pick: 0.6%, Odds of Top 2: 1.3%, Odds of Top 3: 2.2%

Miami Heat

Odds of #1 Pick: 0.5%, Odds of Top 2: 1.1%, Odds of Top 3: 1.8%

Lottery Ramifications

  • The Brooklyn Nets owe the Boston Celtics a pick swap meaning the Celtics will pick in the top four selections.
  • The Los Angeles Lakers send their first round pick to Philadelphia if it falls outside the top three selections
  • Philadelphia has the right to swap picks with Sacramento.  This pick swap is why the Kings have a zero percent chance of winning the lottery.
  • Sacramento loses their pick to Chicago if it falls outside the top ten selections
  • New Orleans loses their pick to Sacramento if it falls outside the top three selections

Final Thoughts

There you have it, the final lottery odds and the ramifications of the choices tonight.  I always enjoy the lottery.  It will provide us with a set draft order for June 22 and allows me to churn over who is selecting which player until then.

As you can see from the ramifications section, tonight is an important night for the Sacramento Kings.  Please tune in and enjoy the drama as the Kings sweat out their fate.  Hopefully, it ends up with two lottery selections and a happy Sacramento fan base.

Big thanks to ESPN for providing me the odds and pick swap details.

A Royal Pain has all the offseason Sacramento Kings’ content you desire.  We will be covering the draft, free agency, and all the juicy rumors, so please check back with us often.  Thank you for reading.

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