Do you know the main reason why the end of the season is so emotional for teams? It's because it is the last time that specific group of players is going to play together. No matter how much continuity you have, there is always some roster turnover from year to year.
The 2023-24 Sacramento Kings are no exception. This offseason could see some minor changes around the edges or a major revamp. Regardless, the team won't be the exact same one you saw last season.
Over the last couple of months, there has been a lot of talk about the Kings looking to make a win-now trade for someone like Kyle Kuzma. And as is the case with all trades, to bring new players in, you need to send players out.
In this article, we look at the four Kings who I think are the most likely to be traded this offseason. The order of these slides will be from least likely to most likely. So, the person on this slide is the least likely to be traded, while the one on the final slide is the most likely.
With all that established, let's get into it.
Davion Mitchell
2023-24 Stats: 5.3 PPG/1.3 RPG/1.9 APG on 55.5% True Shooting
Davion Mitchell is a stout point-of-attack defender who saw some real growth with his jumper in 2023-24. Last season, he shot a career-high percentage (36.1%) on solid volume (53rd percentile in threes per 75 possessions). Mitchell is still not even 26 and will only be making 6.5 million dollars next season (roughly 4.6% of the salary cap) before becoming a restricted free agent.
The point is that Mitchell still has a lot he can offer to this Kings team. However, given his inconsistent role (he only played 15.3 MPG) and convenient contract, I could definitely see the Kings being willing to part ways with him as a salary matcher with some upside.
Chris Duarte
2023-24 Stats: 3.9 PPG/1.8 RPG/0.7 APG on 51.2% True Shooting
Speaking of inconsistent roles, I raise you Chris Duarte. After being acquired from the Indiana Pacers, Duarte did a little bit of everything. He started some games (11 games), came off the bench for some (48), and even logged a handful of DNP-CDs (23).
All this is a setup to say that Duarte never found his footing with the Kings this season. In theory, he was supposed to be a bigger body and better spacer than Mitchell (goes back to the functional size thing we've talked so much about). But, in practice, after a strong rookie season (36.9% from three), Duarte hasn't surpassed the 35% mark from downtown in either of his last two seasons.
Duarte is older (27), wasn't drafted by the Kings (so the front office doesn't have any personal investment in him), and doesn't have a specific specialty that makes him useful for certain situations (Mitchell has his on-ball defense). These variables (and the fact that Duarte has a very similar contract to Mitchell) make it more likely that the Kings would use him as a salary filler in a blockbuster deal over Mitchell.
We discussed this in our article on a potential Kuzma trade, but Duarte would fit perfectly in a hypothetical Harrison Barnes/Kuzma deal. Here is what it would look like:
Kevin Huerter
2023-24 Stats: 10.2 PPG/3.5 RPG/2.6 APG on 56.4% True Shooting
Barring some significant improvement, it is unlikely that Mitchell and Duarte could be on a team's eight-man rotation in the playoffs.
The same can't be said about Kevin Huerter, who is just one season removed from a year where he posted 15.2 PPG while shooting 40.2% on his 6.8 3-point attempts per game. When he was on the floor, the Kings were in the 96th percentile in offensive rating (per Cleaning the Glass). And overall, his Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (OFF EPM) was in the 91st percentile (per Dunks & Threes).
Huerter is still a solid starting caliber player in the NBA. Last season, was a little bit of a down season (36.1% from three). But as we've discussed before, it isn't uncommon for elite shooters to have a down year or two from three throughout there career. Plus, Huerter still has two years on his team-friendly four-year, 65-million dollar deal. He's also only 25.
This makes Huerter a plus asset in a trade, which gives him a higher probability of being moved than Mitchell and Duarte. You need plus assets to acquire good/great players (which is what the Kings want to do).
Given the deluxe shooting that Huerter offers and the New Orleans Pelicans' desperate need for spacing around Zion Williamson, the Kings could package Huerter with some picks and matching salary to try and acquire Brandon Ingram.
Harrison Barnes
2023-24 Stats: 12.2 PPG/3.0 RPG/1.2 APG on 61.1% True Shooting
If you couldn't guess from the two hypothetical trades I proposed in the previous slides, Harrison Barnes is the King that I think is most likely to be traded this offseason.
It's simple logic. The Kings are a good team, but to be a great team, they need to upgrade their roster. Looking at their starting lineup, De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are flawed, but they are still high-end players for their positions. Keegan Murray is the team's best young player. Huerter is primed for a bounce-back season. And if he isn't, Keon Ellis seems ready to take on the mantle of starting two-guard.
That leaves Barnes as the odd man out. If the Kings want to seriously compete for an NBA title, they need to get a starting power forward who does a better job of compensating for Sabonis' weaknesses (shooting and rim protection).
Barnes does the first part well (38.7% 3-point shooter on good volume last year), but he leaves a lot to be desired in the second area (7th percentile block rate). The Kings will probably try to move him for a power forward who does a better job of giving you both of those things.
The good news is that Barnes is on a solid contract (two years left on his three-year, 54-million dollar deal) and can still help good teams win basketball games.
For instance, if that Pelicans trade we suggested came to fruition, Barnes could serve as a great kickout option for Williamson after he drives and collapses the defense. The Pelicans would just need to also find a rim protecting center this offseason.
If Barnes is still on the team heading into next season, my guess is that the Kings didn't end up making any trades this offseason.